Democrats James Talarico and Gina Hinojosa have signed up far more donors than their Republican opponents in the Texas suburbs, the fast-growing counties around the state's biggest cities where Republicans have long made up for their losses in the urban cores, according to a Newsweek analysis of campaign finance records.
Between July and September, Talarico raised more than twice as much as Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton from individual donors in 19 suburban counties around Dallas-Fort Worth, Houston, Austin and San Antonio. In the governor's race, Hinojosa had more donors than Governor Greg Abbott in all 19, and by more than 10 to 1 in seven of them, including Collin, Williamson and Denton.
Early voting starts Monday. Polls have Talarico narrowly ahead in the Senate race and the governor's race close to even, and the suburbs are where Republicans have the least room to give.
Mark Jones, a political science fellow at Rice University's Baker Institute, told Newsweek that Republicans "rely on running up the numbers in the suburban areas to make up for the losses that they always experience in the big urban areas like Houston, Dallas, Austin and San Antonio."
"If Paxton doesn't do better than he's doing right now in the suburban areas, he may very well lose," he said.
Newsweek reviewed every itemized contribution from individual Texas donors in the Talarico and Paxton campaigns' third-quarter reports to the Federal Election Commission, which cover July 1 through September 30, and in the Abbott and Hinojosa campaigns' 30-day pre-election reports to the Texas Ethics Commission, which run through September 24. Each donor's ZIP code was assigned to the county it mostly falls in. Paxton's campaign also reported about $3.5 million in small contributions without donor addresses, which are not included.
Newsweek reached out to the Talarico, Paxton, Abbott and Hinojosa campaigns for comment.
Talarico vs. Paxton: What the Data Shows
Talarico's campaign reported $11.5 million in itemized contributions from about 38,000 Texans in the third quarter. Paxton's reported $4.3 million from about 8,300.
About 10,200 of Talarico's donors live in the suburban counties, and together they gave $2.6 million. Paxton had about 2,600 suburban donors and $1.1 million. Talarico raised more in 16 of the 19 counties, while Paxton came out ahead in Parker County, west of Fort Worth, and in Waller and Chambers, two lightly populated counties on the edge of the Houston area.
Collin County, north of Dallas, gave Talarico $480,000 from about 1,850 donors and Paxton $223,000 from about 490. Williamson County, north of Austin, split $503,000 to $100,000.
Even in Montgomery County, the Republican stronghold north of Houston that includes The Woodlands, Talarico raised $220,000 to Paxton's $162,000. He doubled Paxton's total in Fort Bend County.
Across the 248 suburban ZIP codes where either man raised money, Talarico led in 183 and had more donors in 207.
According to Jones, his own polling points the same way: "Paxton is losing by a pretty dramatic margin in the urban areas, and is deadlocked with Talarico in the suburban areas."
...
Hinojosa vs. Abbott: What the Data Shows
Abbott is the better-funded candidate. Texas sets no contribution limits for state races, and the governor raised $13.4 million from Texas donors over the period, compared with $8.7 million for Hinojosa.
His money came from about 7,700 Texans. Hinojosa's came from about 86,000.
In the suburbs, Abbott raised $1.96 million and Hinojosa $1.54 million. Half of the governor's suburban total is one check, $1 million from Kenneth Fisher of Rockwall County. Take it out, and Hinojosa raised more in the suburbs than the sitting governor.
She had more donors than Abbott in every suburban county and raised more money in 15 of them. Williamson County gave her $284,000 from about 4,060 donors, against $33,000 from about 230 for Abbott. In Collin County, she counted 3,726 donors to his 321, and Fort Bend went her way, $117,000 to $30,000.
Abbott's four suburban wins in dollars came in Rockwall, Comal, Montgomery and Johnson counties. Most of his $265,000 in Comal, north of San Antonio, was a single $250,000 contribution from John Weisman of New Braunfels.
...
Top ZIP Codes for Democrats
Most of the Democrats' strongest suburban ZIP codes sit in Williamson and Hays counties, on either side of Austin.
Talarico's best was Georgetown's 78633, home to the Sun City Texas retirement community, where 281 donors gave him $79,000. Hinojosa counted 439 donors in the same ZIP code. Abbott had 62.
Cedar Park's 78613 topped Hinojosa's list with 584 donors and $42,700, while Paxton raised $7,900 there from 22 people. Near Houston, Sugar Land's 77479 gave Talarico $49,000, about three times Paxton's total, and Hinojosa had 339 donors there to Abbott's 27.
The gap is starkest in Hays County. In Kyle, Hinojosa had 383 donors and Abbott had eight.
Talarico's top 10 suburban ZIP codes, by dollars raised, July to September 2026
Hinojosa's top 10 suburban ZIP codes, by dollars raised, July to September 2026
Top ZIP Codes for Republicans
Paxton's suburban money was spread across Republican neighborhoods north of Houston and Dallas and in the Hill Country, from Plano and The Woodlands to Boerne and Katy. His single best ZIP code was Georgetown's 78633, at $38,000.
Talarico still outraised him in eight of Paxton's own top 10. The two exceptions were Rockwall's 75032, where Paxton led $21,600 to $17,000, and Montgomery's 77316.
Abbott's list was built on a handful of large checks. Four of his top five suburban ZIP codes produced 16 or fewer donors each. Fisher's contribution put Rockwall's 75032 at the top, and in Plano's 75024, Aubrey's 76227 and Spring's 77380, one $100,000 contribution accounted for most of the governor's total. Hinojosa had more donors than Abbott in all 10 of those ZIP codes.
Paxton's top 10 suburban ZIP codes, by dollars raised, July to September 2026
Abbott's top 10 suburban ZIP codes, by dollars raised, July to September 2026. Rockwall's total includes a single $1 million contribution.
The Suburban Problem
Paxton can't make up for weak suburbs with rural votes, said Jones, whose team plans to release a statewide survey on Sunday.
"Now he's going to crush Talarico in the rural areas, but that's not a large enough share," he said. "In order to defeat Talarico, Paxton needs to win the suburbs by a larger margin than he's presently winning the suburbs."
In Jones' view, the race was always going to be hard for Paxton, whom he called "the most deeply flawed candidate that Texas Republicans have run for a statewide office in the modern era." What Republicans didn't plan for was the slide in President Donald Trump's approval ratings over the past year.
A Republican normally starts a statewide race in Texas with "a cushion of somewhere in the high single digits," Jones said. "And that cushion is now down to next to nothing."
...
Very few donors are switching parties. Of Abbott's roughly 7,700 Texas donors, eight also gave to Talarico and seven to Hinojosa, and only three Paxton donors gave to Talarico.
Brendan Steinhauser, a Republican strategist in Texas, reads the polls as a turnout problem for his party. "This doesn't necessarily mean that a bunch of Republicans have become Democrats in Texas," he told Newsweek. "It's more that Republican voters might not be as enthusiastic to vote this year as they have been in the past."
Some of them, he expects, will back Abbott and leave the Senate race blank.
"There are some Abbott voters that are not necessarily going to vote for Talarico, but they're not going to vote for Paxton either," Steinhauser said. "So we call that an undervote."
Democrats point to their own record in the big counties. Matt Angle, a Democratic strategist and director of the Lone Star Project, noted that Harris and Dallas counties were Republican strongholds before Democrats won them over.
What the Latest Polls Say in Texas
A Marist poll conducted October 8 to 11 found Talarico leading Paxton 47 percent to 45 percent among likely voters, with Abbott ahead of Hinojosa 49 percent to 45 percent. The margin of error for likely voters is plus or minus 4.9 percentage points.
The suburban numbers in the same survey lean further toward the Democrats. Talarico led there 56 percent to 41 percent, and Hinojosa 52 percent to 43 percent. Paxton's favorability among all likely voters stood at 34 percent, with 56 percent viewing him unfavorably.
The final University of Texas/Texas Politics Project poll, taken September 25 to October 5, had Talarico ahead 50 percent to 47 percent and Hinojosa up 49 percent to 48 percent. ReconMR, polling October 5 to 8, found Talarico leading 48 percent to 44 percent while Abbott held a 48 percent to 47 percent edge.
In all three, Paxton runs behind Abbott.
"Ticket-splitting voters could decide the Senate race," Brandon Rottinghaus, a political science professor at the University of Houston, told Newsweek.
Steinhauser still expects his party to hold the seat. "I just think it might be closer than we all expected," he said.
Angle told Newsweek that Democrats are not taking anything for granted. "Texas is still a state that favors Republicans," he said. "It doesn't just fall to us. We have to take it away from the Republicans."
Early voting runs through October 30, and Election Day is November 3.
Newsweek’s reporters and editors used Martyn, our AI assistant, to produce this story. Learn more about Martyn here. Contact Newsweek editors on this story: Jason Lemon and Gray R. Thomas