BRAZIL · ELECTIONS
Key Facts
- —What is happening Justice Dias Toffoli of Brazil’s electoral court said on Saturday, 24 October, that courts should stop campaign airtime and social posts from becoming a “ring” of attacks.
- —Why it matters He spoke to international observers on the eve of the runoff between Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro, and the report mentions no new rule or vote.
- —The numbers Brazil’s electoral courts have taken in more than 100,000 cases this year, mostly about campaign accounts and irregular election ads.
- —Who is who Toffoli sits on both the Supreme Court and the Superior Electoral Court (TSE), which is led by president Kassio Nunes Marques.
- —What to watch Voting on Sunday, 25 October, and whether the court turns Toffoli’s call into a formal proposal or resolution for future elections.
- —Power Index Brazil ranks 1st of 14 in The Rio Times Latin America Power Index, with 75.0 points (October 2026 edition).
- —Prediction markets Polymarket gives Flávio Bolsonaro an 82.8% chance of winning the 25 October runoff and Lula 17.5% (24 October, 12:52 p.m. ET). Polymarket puts Flávio Bolsonaro’s chance of winning at 83% and Kalshi at 84% (Lula: 18% and 18%), as of 24 October, 12:40 pm ET; prices are bets, not polls.
- —What it means for you US investors in Brazilian assets face a runoff that the ad debate does not change.
Justice Dias Toffoli says Brazil’s electoral courts should stop free airtime from turning into personal attacks. The report mentions no draft text and no vote.
Justice Dias Toffoli of Brazil’s electoral court said on Saturday, 24 October, that courts should stop campaign airtime becoming a ring. He spoke a day before the Brazil election 2026 runoff between President Lula and Senator Flávio Bolsonaro.
Brazil Election Data Room
Runoff poll average: Flávio Bolsonaro 51.0%, Lula 49.0%
41 national polls from 20 pollsters since 4 October, updated hourly. Every poll, free to download.
CNN Brasil reports that he told international observers that voters now see personal clashes instead of government plans. Bettors still see a Flávio win, as the latest Brazil election odds show.
What Toffoli Said About Election Ads
Toffoli spoke at a morning meeting with international observers and representatives, the broadcaster reported. He said the electoral courts should find ways to stop candidates’ airtime becoming a ring.
Politics must go back to discussing politics, he said. He called it a challenge for Brazil and for much of the democratic world.
Toffoli criticised using free election airtime for attacks between candidates. He argued that citizens effectively pay for it, because broadcasters receive tax relief for the time they provide.
He said citizens should not have to pay for offences between candidates. Voters, he said, have stopped following government proposals and now watch personal clashes in official ads and on social networks.
A Call, Not Yet a Rule
The report does not say Toffoli filed a draft, asked for a vote or gave a date. Valor Econômico also covered the remarks, but its article could not be opened and is not relied on.
The remarks came at a meeting with observers, not in a ruling. A call by one justice does not by itself change what campaigns may broadcast.
What He Said Two Days Earlier
Toffoli raised the issue on Thursday, 22 October, during a TSE plenary session, the broadcaster reported. He called campaigns built on accusations against rivals and their allies shameful, saying that is not real campaigning.
Justice Estela Aranha backed him, saying ads built on organised crime accusations would leave no real campaign. She added that the court had tried to talk to the campaigns.
The ruling came in a case brought by a Flávio Bolsonaro colleague, who wanted an ad from Lula’s coalition removed. The ad carried an accusatory line about Flávio and showed a photo of a group she belonged to.
By majority, the court allowed the ad to air provided her face was blurred. It did not order the ad removed.
The Court Under Pressure Before Sunday
The broadcaster says the electoral courts have taken in more than 100,000 cases this year. Most concern campaign accounts and reports of irregular propaganda.
Brazil’s campaign has also turned on a challenge over secrecy. Justice André Mendonça, the TSE vice-president, let both candidates publish their own bank, tax and phone data on Thursday.
The TSE barred allies Nikolas Ferreira and Pablo Marçal from false posts on Friday, 23 October, in Brazil court bars false posts. On Tuesday the court upheld a takedown order over posts linking Flávio Bolsonaro to crime.
What Prediction Markets Say
On Polymarket, a crypto-based exchange, bettors gave Flávio Bolsonaro an 82.8% chance of winning at 12:52 p.m. ET on Saturday, 24 October. Lula stood at 17.5%.
The Flávio contract has traded about US$26.7 million, and the whole Brazil presidential event about US$194.9 million. These are bets on the Sunday vote, not polls, and nothing in them measures the ad debate.
Prices move fast and are bets, not polls. Live prices follow.
Prediction markets · who wins the runoff
Implied chance of winning Brazil’s presidency on 25 October, from traders’ prices.
Polymarket
Flávio Bolsonaro 83% · Lula 17.5% (US$195 million traded)
Kalshi (regulated in the US by the CFTC)
Flávio Bolsonaro 84% · Lula 18%
As of 24 October, 12:40 pm ET (17:40 Lisbon), updated every 20 minutes. Prices are bets, not polls, and can move fast.
Why we show this: prediction markets turn real-money bets into a live probability that moves within minutes of the news, which is why investors, campaigns and newsrooms in the United States now follow them closely. We show them next to polls and official results, never instead of them.
Why we show this: prediction markets turn real-money bets into a live probability that moves within minutes of the news, which is why investors, campaigns and newsrooms in the United States now follow them closely. We show them next to polls and official results, never instead of them.
What It Means for US Readers
US investors with Brazilian stocks, bonds or the real face a runoff that the ad debate does not change. Toffoli’s remarks matter because they show the court’s concern about the tone of the final campaign days.
The latest Brazil election polls show how close the race is, according to the Rio Times tracker. More coverage is on the Brazil news hub.
What Is Not Known
It is not known whether Toffoli will file a formal proposal, or whether the TSE plenary would take it up. No source gives a date, a draft text or a vote count.
It is also unclear whether any limit could apply before Sunday’s vote. Nothing in the report suggests that it could.
The TSE website and Valor could not be opened, so the remarks rest on one news report. Details found only in Valor are not used here.
What Comes Next
Voting takes place on Sunday, 25 October, and the Brazil runoff date page explains when results come in. The TSE counts the votes and announces the winner.
Any change to ad rules would follow later, if the court takes it up. A call by one justice does not by itself change what campaigns may broadcast.
Frequently Asked Questions
What did Dias Toffoli say about election ads?
He said electoral courts should find ways to stop campaign airtime becoming a ring of attacks. He said politics must return to discussing politics.
Has Brazil changed its election ad rules?
Not so far as reported. The report mentions no draft, vote or resolution, only Toffoli’s remarks on Saturday, 24 October.
Who is Dias Toffoli?
He is a justice of Brazil’s Supreme Court who also sits on the Superior Electoral Court. He spoke to international observers on Saturday.
Why did he mention taxes?
Toffoli said broadcasters get tax relief for campaign airtime. He argued that citizens effectively pay for it.
When is Brazil’s runoff?
Voters choose between Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro on Sunday, 25 October. The TSE counts the votes and announces the winner.
Sources: CNN Brasil, 24 October; CNN Brasil, 22 October; Jornal do Brasil, 1 October (all accessed 24 October 2026).