More than a dozen House districts that backed President Donald Trump by double-digit margins in the 2024 election have become competitive in the 2026 midterm elections.
Democrats are increasingly optimistic that a “blue wave” fueled by Trump’s declining approval rating will help carry them to victory in this year’s elections. Republicans currently have a slim House majority, holding 218 seats to Democrats’ 214 seats, so Democrats only need to flip a handful of seats to seize control of the chamber.
As polls point to a more favorable national environment, Democrats are eyeing seats Trump won by double digits in 2024. These aren’t necessarily seen as must-wins for the party, but could give them additional padding heading into the next Congress.
Many of these districts are already represented by Democrats but became more conservative in the wave of mid-decade redistricting that occurred, mostly in Republican-leaning states, earlier this year.
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Others with large Hispanic populations were once more friendly to Democrats but swung rightward over the past decade as Trump made inroads with that voting bloc. But polling suggests that a reversion back to Democrats could leave Republican members of Congress in those seats vulnerable this year.
Voters appear to be judging Trump “very harshly," compared to two years ago, when he was running on campaign promises such as lowering prices and becoming less engaged in international affairs, Stephen Farnsworth, political science professor at the University of Maryland, Washington, told Newsweek.
Current polling and special election results suggest any district Trump won by 15 points or less could be competitive this year, he said.
In this year’s midterms, which he said “seems to be another midterm election in which voters vote against the president's party,” Democrats’ chances of winning some of these double-digit Trump seats could rest upon their ability to win back Hispanic and Latino voters, he said.
“Democrats, particularly those running in FL and TX, will not win competitive districts if Republicans capture the same share of the Latino vote that they did two years ago,” he said. “Polls indicate that Latinos have turned sharply against President Trump and Republicans running in the midterm election cycle, giving Democratic candidates hope in districts where they were not all that competitive two years ago.”
Under current lines, Representative Jared Golden is the Democrat representing the seat that backed Trump by the largest margin in Maine's 2nd District, which Trump won by 9 points in 2024. But in 2018, the last time there was a "blue wave" election during Trump's first term in office, Democrats won several seats Trump won by double digits in 2016, though many of those Democrats would go on to lose reelection in 2020, a more neutral year.
Newsweek reached out to the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC) and the National Republican Congressional Committee (NRCC) for comment via email.
Where Double-Digit Trump Seats Could Swing to Democrats
In total, the Cook Political Report rates 18 seats that Trump won by a double-digit margin in 2024 as being either a toss-up or having a lean toward either Democrats or Republicans. Here is a look at where these seats are.
Florida
Four of these races are in Florida. The Sunshine State was a premier battleground state for much of the 2000s but has become more of a conservative stronghold over the past decade as Hispanic voters shifted rightward and as the state attracted an influx of more Republican-leaning retirees. But Democrats are hoping to make a comeback there this year.
Florida was also one of the Republican-led states to redraw its seats in the midterms, placing Democrat incumbents in tougher seats.
Democratic Representative Kathy Castor, a Democrat representing the Tampa area, is one of those members. Her district lost areas near the city for more conservative suburban and rural areas, leaving her in a district that Trump carried by just over 10 points. But the race is a toss-up against Republican Mike Beltran.
A St. Pete Polls survey showed Castor up 9 points, 46 percent to 38 percent, among 469 likely voters from July 14 to 15. It had a margin of error of plus or minus 4.5 percentage points.
In Florida’s 13th District, based around nearby Pinellas County, GOP Representative Anna Paulina Luna is seen as having a slight edge over Democrat Leela Gray. Cook considers the district, which Trump carried by 13 points, to be Lean Republican.
Two other close races are in South Florida.
Florida’s 22nd District is an open race. It includes areas near Miami and Fort Lauderdale, but also extends westward to take in some more conservative voters along the Gulf of Mexico in southwest Florida. The toss-up district backed Trump by 10.2 points. Democrat Pia Dandiya and Republican Casey Askar are running for this seat.
The race was a dead heat in a Tavern Research Poll of 551 likely voters from August 10 to 12, with each candidate receiving 50 percent support. The poll had a margin of error of plus or minus 4.9 percentage points.
Meanwhile, GOP Representative Maria Elvira Salazar is facing a closer-than-expected race against Democrat Elliot Rodriguez in her district based around Miami. She has drawn attention for distancing herself from the Trump administration’s immigration policy, drawing pushback from the president. Trump won the district by nearly 15 points but is seen as Lean Republican.
Iowa
Iowa’s 2nd District gave Trump a 10-point margin and is seen as a toss-up, according to Cook.
Democrat Lindsay James and Republican Joe Mitchell are running in the district, based around northeastern Iowa. It includes Democratic cities like Cedar Rapids and Waterloo, as well as more conservative, rural turf.
The seat is currently held by Republican Representative Ashley Hinson, who is running for Senate.
Kentucky
In Kentucky’s 6th District, based around Lexington and more rural areas of central Kentucky, Democrat Zach Dembo and Republican Ralph Alvarado are vying to succeed GOP Representative Andy Barr, who is running for Senate.
The district backed Trump by 15 points and is seen as Lean Republican.
Dembo was up 6 points in a recent DCCC poll of the race conducted among 606 likely voters from October 2 to 5, with a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points.
Montana
Democrat Sam Forstag is hoping to flip Montana’s 1st District, which Trump won by about 11.6 points. It’s an open district, and he is running against Republican Aaron Flint. The district has a conservative lean and is based around the western part of the state. It includes more Democratic cities like Missoula, Bozeman and Butte, but also rural voters that have kept it from Democrats.
But Democrats believe that could change this year. The Cook Political Report classifies the race as a toss-up.
A poll from Rutgers showed Flint up 1 point, 42 percent to 41 percent, among 375 registered voters from August 27 to September 7. It had a margin of error of plus or minus 4.2 percentage points.
Minnesota
The Cook Political Report reclassified Minnesota's 1st District as Leans Republican after previously viewing it as Likely Republican. The district includes the southern part of the state, including Rochester and backed Trump by about 12 points. Representative Brad Finstad, a Republican, is facing a challenge from Democrat Jake Johnson.
A recent SurveyUSA poll gave Johnson a 2-point lead, 46 percent to 44 percent, among 565 likely voters from October 4-12. It had a credibility interval of plus or minus 4.6 percentage points.
New York
New York's 21st District also shifted to Lean Republican this week. The district is held by GOP Representative Elise Stefanik, who is not running for reelection. The race to succeed her between Republican Anthony Constantino and Democrat Blake Gendebien has become more competitive than expected in a district that backed Trump by over 20 points.
Gendebien held a 4-point lead in a recent Siena University poll conducted from September 30 to October 6. Forty-six percent of respondents said they would vote for the Democratic candidate, while Constantino’s support stood at 42 percent in the poll of 496 respondents. It had a margin of error of plus or minus 4.6 percentage points.
However, an Impact Research poll of 500 likely voters from September 29 to October 4 showed Constantino with 48 percent and Gendebien with 45 percent support. The Democratic internal poll had a margin of error of plus or minus 4.4 percentage points and was first reported by The Watertown Daily Times.
North Carolina
North Carolina’s 1st District is centered around the northeastern part of the state and includes more rural areas, as well as parts of the state with a large Black population. Trump carried this seat by 11.5 points in 2024, and it got more conservative in redistricting.
It’s represented by centrist Democrat Don Davis, who is running for reelection against Republican Laurie Buckhout in the toss-up district.
Buckhout led in a recent co/efficient poll sponsored by her campaign, 43 percent to 42 percent, conducted among 623 likely voters from October 6 to 8. But Davis led in a GQR poll, sponsored by his campaign, among 500 likely voters from September 29 to October 4, 47 percent to 39 percent.
The co/efficient poll had a margin of error of plus or minus 3.91 percentage points, while the margin of error of the GQR poll was not included in the release.
Ohio
Three double-digit Trump seats in northern Ohio have become competitive.
Ohio’s 7th District is based around Cleveland suburbs, as well as more rural areas in the region. GOP Representative Max Miller is facing a challenge from Democrat Brian Poindexter.
The seat was not previously thought of as being particularly competitive, but allegations of abuse against Miller made by his ex-wife brought the race onto the playing field. Miller denies any wrongdoing.
Polling has given Poindexter a lead in the seat that backed Trump by about 11 points in 2024. A Tavern Research poll gave Poindexter an 8-point lead over the embattled Republican, 54 percent to 46 percent, among 635 likely voters from August 4 to 5. It had a margin of error of plus or minus 4.8 percentage points.
Meanwhile, in Ohio’s 9th District, which was redrawn to favor Republicans, longtime Democratic Representative Marcy Kaptur is facing a challenge from Republican Derek Merrin in a seat that supported Trump by about 10.6 points.
The seat is regarded as a toss-up. Republicans have been investing in the seat, and Kaptur has drawn national attention over her reelection bid after releasing ads about transgender athletes, weighing in on a major cultural issue that has become a vulnerability for Democrats.
Ohio's 15th District, where Republican Representative Mike Carey is facing a challenge from Democrat Don Leonard, has also shifted to Lean Republican. It backed Trump by 10 points and includes parts of Columbus, as well as more conservative, rural areas to the west of the city.
South Carolina
South Carolina's 1st District backed Trump by 13 points but is now seen as competitive, with the Cook Political Report classifying the race as Lean Republican. Representative Nancy Mace is the incumbent but left the seat open in her gubernatorial run. It is comprised of the Lowcountry and suburbs of Charleston.
Republican Jenny Costa Honeycutt and Democrat Nancy Lacore are running to succeed Mace.
Honeycutt led by 6 points in a co/efficient poll, 46 percent to 40 percent, among 837 likely voters from September 30 to October 1. The poll had a margin of error of plus or minus 3.37 percentage points.
Texas
Four of these districts are also located in South Texas, a region that once favored Democrats due to the high concentration of Hispanic voters. But Trump did well in the area, winning several seats that previously backed Democrats. At the same time, Democrats performed better down-ballot, though these districts were also redrawn to favor Republicans. If there is a major shift among Hispanic voters, these districts could be where those gains are most pronounced.
Texas’ 15th District is the most conservative of those seats, backing Trump by nearly 18 points in 2024. In that seat, Republican Representative Monica De La Cruz is facing a challenge from Democrat Bobby Pulido. It’s seen as a toss-up by Cook.
Democratic Representative Henry Cuellar is seen as a favorite against Republican Tano Tijerina in Texas’ 28th District, which backed Trump by 10.4 points. Meanwhile, Democratic Representative Vicente Gonzalez is in a toss-up race against Republican Eric Flores in Texas’ 34th District, Trump carried by just over 10 points.
A recent poll from Barbara Jordan Public Policy Research and Survey Center gave Democrats leads in each of those three races. It surveyed 700 likely voters in TX-15 and TX-34, with a margin of error of plus or minus 3.7 percentage points, and 600 likely voters in TX-28 from August 18 to August 22, with a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points.
It showed Pulido up 5 points, 50 percent to 45 percent; Cuellar up 11 points, 45 percent to 34 percent; and Gonzalez up 3 points, 45 percent to 42 percent.
In Texas’ 35th District, which is based around parts of San Antonio and the surrounding counties, Democrat Johnny Garcia is running against Republican Carlos De La Cruz. Trump won the district by 10.5 points, and it’s seen as Lean Republican by Cook.
What Prediction Markets Show About These Races
These races are all seen as competitive. The following chart reveals what Kalshi shows about Democrats’ chances of winning these races.
Prediction markets allow traders to buy and sell contracts tied to political outcomes and current events, aggregating real‑money wagers into probability estimates.
Prices fluctuate as traders react to polling, fundraising, candidate developments and broader political trends. They measure trader sentiment at a given moment but do not always predict the future accurately.
What Happens Next
Early voting is already underway in several states, as candidates make their final pitches to win over undecided swing voters and build enthusiasm among their respective partisan bases. The outcomes of these races could be determined by ongoing economic developments and shifts in Trump’s popularity in the last stretch of the campaign.
Newsweek’s reporters and editors used Martyn, our AI assistant, to produce this story. Learn more about Martyn here. Contact Newsweek editors on this story: Jason Lemon and Gray R. Thomas