Global fuel shortages could persist until mid-2027, even if disruptions linked to the Middle East conflict ease, as extensive refinery maintenance is expected to constrain supplies, according to Morgan Stanley.
The bank forecasts that planned refinery maintenance could take around 3.4 million barrels per day of capacity offline in the second quarter of 2027, approximately two-and-a-half times the usual level. The scale of the anticipated shutdowns could limit the recovery of global refining activity despite any easing of geopolitical disruptions.
Morgan Stanley noted that the projected maintenance-related downtime would exceed the current reductions in refinery operations in the Middle East and Russia, indicating that fuel supply pressures are likely to remain significant through the second quarter of next year.
Global markets are already facing mounting shortages of diesel, with fuel exports from the Middle East and Russia declining amid production disruptions and attacks on energy infrastructure. These constraints have added to concerns over the availability of refined petroleum products in international markets.
The International Energy Agency has also warned that a recovery in Russian refinery output is likely to remain limited as Ukrainian attacks on refinery facilities intensify, further complicating the outlook for global fuel supplies.
The outlook suggests that even if conflict-related disruptions subside, refinery maintenance and continued pressure on production could prolong tight fuel markets well into 2027.