Bitcoin : JPMorgan Forecasts 10% Per Year Over 10 To 15 years

JPMorgan Asset Management incorporates bitcoin for the first time into its long-term market forecasts. In its 2027 report, the bank estimates a compound return of 10% per year over the next 10 to 15 years. This is more than the 7.5% expected for large U.S. stocks and 5.5% for gold. The counterpart is clear. JPMorgan estimates bitcoin’s annual volatility at 55%.

Bitcoin enters JPMorgan’s forecasts for the first time

This is a first in the 31 editions of JPMorgan’s Long-Term Capital Market Assumptions. The bank, which had already increased its Bitcoin ETF exposure in the second quarter of 2026, now directly assigns BTC a long-term return assumption.

The figure retained is 10% per year in compound return. U.S. REITs follow with 8.2%, then small-cap U.S. stocks at 7.7% and large-cap at 7.5%. High-yield U.S. bonds reach 6.6%. Gold remains at 5.5%.

Among this selection, bitcoin thus leads. The report covers a horizon of 10 to 15 years and over 200 asset classes. JPMorgan specifies these figures are used for strategic portfolio construction. They are neither price targets nor performance promises.

Purely mathematically, 100 dollars growing at 10% per year would be worth approximately 259 dollars after ten years and 418 dollars after fifteen years. This obviously assumes JPMorgan’s average return is realized.

High return comes with 55% volatility

The second figure is much less comfortable. JPMorgan estimates bitcoin’s annualized volatility at 55%. It is around 18% for large U.S. stocks and 17.2% for gold.

The gap explains another particularity of the report. The estimated annual arithmetic return for bitcoin reaches 20.9%, more than double its compound return of 10%. Sharp declines and successive recoveries strongly reduce the actual compound performance over several years.

This volatility remains central to the comparisons between bitcoin and yellow metal. In September, JPMorgan still estimated that Bitcoin had a catch-up potential greater than gold, especially considering positioning in ETFs and futures markets.

The 2027 report goes further by now assigning a quantified return assumption to Bitcoin. But JPMorgan still does not treat it like a typical stock or bond. The bank describes it as a speculative asset that can also serve as a hedge against monetary easing.

JPMorgan still does not include Bitcoin in its model portfolios

The figure of 10% does not mean JPMorgan automatically advises its clients to buy Bitcoin. The distinction is clear in the report. BTC is included in return assumptions but not in strategic allocation examples. The bank mainly cites the instability of its correlations with other assets.

Bitcoin can sometimes move with stocks. At other times, its behavior is closer to gold or completely detached from both. JPMorgan thus considers it still difficult to assign Bitcoin a lasting diversification role.

The contrast with previous analyses by the bank remains interesting. By the end of 2025, JPMorgan had calculated a theoretical price near 170,000 dollars for Bitcoin versus gold. It was then a valuation and volatility comparison over a much shorter horizon. The new report changes the scale. JPMorgan no longer just provides a price scenario. Bitcoin now enters the same 10-15 year projection exercise as stocks, bonds, real estate, or gold.

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