ROCK SPRINGS, Wis. (AP) — Democrats got the matchup they wanted for governor in Wisconsin.
Milwaukee County Executive David Crowley defeated a democratic socialist in the primary and faces one of President Donald Trump’s closest allies in Washington. It’s a dream matchup for Democrats in a midterm election where Trump’s approval ratings are at record lows.
But the race remains close based on the latest public polling. Republican U.S. Rep. Tom Tiffany, who survived a small plane crash while campaigning, distanced himself from some of Trump’s most unpopular policies while tapping three billionaire megadonors to hammer Crowley as weak on crime and illegal immigration.
The attacks and Tiffany’s financial advantage, along with Wisconsin’s long history as a state narrowly divided between Republicans and Democrats, is helping to keep the campaign close in a midterm election in which Democrats are hoping to notch big wins nationwide.
“We think we’re in a great spot,” Tiffany said after a law enforcement roundtable in Rock Springs earlier this month. “We basically see a dead heat race at this point.”
Democratic strategist Joe Zepecki said Crowley is doing better than people think — noting that in 2018, the last midterm when Trump was in office, Democrats defeated a two-term Republican incumbent governor and reelected U.S. Sen. Tammy Baldwin by double digits. The wave is shaping up to be even bigger for Democrats this year, he said.
“The political environment is doing a lot of work for David Crowley,” Zepecki said. “The handwringing is what Democrats do, and I’m fine with nervous energy motivating people to run through the tape on Nov. 3.”
Tiffany breaks with Trump on Iran and data centers
Tiffany has been a longtime ally of Trump but in recent months has taken steps to distance himself from the unpopular Republican president.
Tiffany voted five times against resolutions in the U.S. House that would’ve prohibited Trump from continuing military activities in Iran without congressional approval, but in May he said it was time to “wrap up” the war.
In an interview with WMTV on Tuesday, Tiffany sidestepped a question about whether he approved of Trump’s performance.
“The president is doing what he believes is best for the United States of America,” Tiffany said. “What I’m focused on is being the best governor possible in Wisconsin.”
Tiffany has also been critical of artificial intelligence data centers, breaking with Trump, who has said communities that don’t embrace them will be “backwards and poor.” Instead, Tiffany has tried to paint Crowley as an advocate for building data centers, referring to him as “Data Center David Crowley.”
Crowley has said his comments on AI data centers were taken out of context. He has said local communities must have veto authority, while also calling data centers a part of the modern economy that could bring significant economic benefits to the state.
Tiffany and his supporters have tried to paint Crowley as weak on crime, hitting him for a Milwaukee County program that provides computer tablets to inmates that some used to contact and harass victims and witnesses. Crowley last week suspended messaging features on the tablets after criticism from Tiffany.
Crowley targets Tiffany’s ties to Trump
Crowley and his backers have tried to hammer Tiffany on his loyalty to Trump, his past support for the war in Iran, high tariffs and soaring gas prices.
Crowley this month launched an ad accusing Tiffany of pledging his loyalty to Trump and his billionaire backers. Tiffany raised more than $26 million during the most recent two-month reporting period, with $24 million-plus coming from just three people.
“These billionaires know that if they buy Congressman Tom Tiffany this election, he will sell Wisconsin out to them,” Crowley told supporters last week.
Tiffany said he thinks Crowley’s attacks linking him and Trump aren’t landing.
“People of Wisconsin are really savvy voters,” Tiffany said. “They’re like, ‘We’re not voting for president in this election. We’re voting for the governor.’”
Liberal activist Scot Ross said Crowley and his supporters have to do more to remind voters about Tiffany’s ties to Trump given voter anger over high gas prices, the Iran war and inflation.
“The number one thing in politics is anger wanes,” Ross said. “In campaigns, you need to be reminded why you’re angry. And you’re angry because of what Tom Tiffany, Trump and Republicans have done.”
Tiffany outspends Crowley
A Marquette University Law School poll of 692 likely voters conducted Sept. 16-23 showed the governor’s race to be about even.
Tiffany and his backers have outspent Crowley and his supporters $53 million to roughly $35 million, according to AdImpact, which tracks political advertising.
“We think that we have momentum on our side at this point,” Tiffany said. “I think David Crowley is struggling to get his message out.”
Republican strategist Ben Voelkel said given the “challenging national environment,” he thinks Tiffany is running a strong campaign aided by the financial advantage.
“He’s offering voters a choice and something different from the status quo, which is what I think David Crowley represents,” Voelkel said.
Democratic socialist who lost primary urges support for nominee
Crowley emerged from a chaotic Democratic primary that saw two top candidates drop out within a month of the election. Crowley had also dropped out, but he got back in at the urging of two-term incumbent Gov. Tony Evers as part of an effort by more mainstream Democrats to defeat democratic socialist Francesca Hong.
Crowley eked out a primary win by less than half a percentage point in August, and Tiffany is banking on low turnout among Democrats.
“People are not excited about David Crowley, and you can see it out there,” Tiffany said. “He’s counting on the generic ballot getting them across the finish line.”
But Democratic leaders are rallying around Crowley. Besides Evers’ ongoing support, Hong is also campaigning on Crowley’s behalf.
“Let’s win this together,” she said in an Oct. 1 social media post.
In another attempt to unify Democrats and boost turnout, Maryland Gov. Wes Moore campaigned with Crowley across Wisconsin last week, noting that Crowley is vying to become Wisconsin’s first Black governor. Moore is the first Black governor of Maryland and just the third Black person elected governor in U.S. history.
Former Vice President Kamala Harris, the first Black person to hold that position, is scheduled to campaign with Crowley on Oct. 26.
Wisconsin is used to tight elections, even in wave years
Five of the past seven presidential elections were decided by less than a percentage point in Wisconsin. In 2018, the last Trump midterm election, Evers defeated Republican then-Gov. Scott Walker by 1.1 percentage points. In 2022, Evers won reelection by 3.4 percentage points, a landslide by Wisconsin standards.
The governor’s race is open for the first time in 16 years after Evers decided against seeking a third term. Democrats hope to hang onto the office and flip control of the Legislature, which has been majority Republican since 2011.
Crowley and Tiffany are running statewide for the first time. Crowley served three years in the state Assembly and has been the top elected official in Milwaukee County since 2020.
Tiffany, also a former state lawmaker, has served in Congress representing a mostly rural northern Wisconsin district since 2020.
“Three months ago people didn’t really know either of these candidates,” said Gordon Hintz, a former Democratic state lawmaker who served as Crowley’s mentor when he was first elected to the Assembly. “It’s kind of a race to the finish of who best defines themselves to the voters.”