SAN FRANCISCO — Allisha Gray trots to the right corner immediately after the jump ball, waiting to log one of 38 half-court touches of the day.
After Jordin Canada advances a pass to Naz Hillmon on the left wing — a precursor to a “fake” empty side pick-and-roll — Gray prepares to jet off a pair of screens from Angel Reese and Rhyne Howard. Or, so we think.
Reese and Howard space near the right wing, while Gray’s path takes her near half-court. More importantly, it takes the Valkyries’ Cecilia Zandalasini with her. Kinda. Instead of Zandalasini setting up shop at the nail (near the middle of the free-throw line), her toes are just inside the 3-point line, her body mostly turned to Gray.
Canada, receiving the ball back from Hillmon, immediately attacks downhill — passing a gap that Zandalasini is supposed to be filling. Zandalasini knows, and works desperately to get to that area.
Canada knows that she knows, countering that late rotation with a pass to Gray, who runs into it with a head of steam.
Two dribbles, two points. The Dream get us started.
Opening possession of the Finals!
— Nekias (Nuh-KAI-us) Duncan (@NekiasNBA) October 17, 2026
Peep the spacing from ATL. Looks like a stagger but Allisha Gray ends up near half-court.
Jordin Canada looks to attack; Cecilia Zandalasini is late getting to the nail bc of how far out Gray is.
Gray gets to attack a closeout for a finish. pic.twitter.com/1mF5xsh1Z6
It’s the kind of intentionality that head coach Karl Smesko has worked to instill into this Dream offense. Where the players are spaced, who’s involved in actions, when players get to attack — and what the others must do while that attack is happening.
It’s also the kind of intentionality that the Dream need, consistently, if they’re to defeat — at least statistically — the greatest defense in WNBA history.
They weren’t able to get the job done in Game 1, with the Valkyries snagging a come-from-behind 68-64 victory. The Dream defended their tails off in this one. Smesko praised his team’s efforts after the game, though he also acknowledged that untimely breakdowns were all it took in a game as close as this one.
Still, you hold a team to 68 points — an offensive rating a tick under 82— and you should be in great position to win. It’s where the “64” portion comes into greater focus, and it’s hard to feel good right now.
The basic numbers are yucky: 17-of-39 (43.6%) on 2s, 4-of-25 (16%) on 3s.
The more “advanced” numbers (cannot confirm or deny if this is snark) are also yucky. Consider these nuggets, courtesy of Second Spectrum::
Atlanta’s effective field-goal percentage (eFG; 35.9%) and expected shot quality (43.3%) were its lowest of the season (regular season + playoffs).
93.8% of their shots were contested, the second-highest mark in a game this season.
Atlanta generated 0.73 PPP on half-court trips, their fifth-worst mark in a game this season; three of the five have come against the Valkyries.
These are primarily pro-Valkyries notes, to be clear. They are filled to the brim with elite defenders. Gabby Williams, Veronica Burton, and Kiah Stokes — their All-Defensive triumvirate — combined for eight stocks and many other great possessions that didn’t land in the box score.
And this is to say nothing about the work that Kayla Thornton, Kaila Charles (still reeling from her strip of Howard), and Laeticia Amihere (welcome to the rotation, great defense on Reese) bring to the table.
But I’d argue there’s also a message in what the Valkyries didn’t do in this game.
The Valkyries didn’t bother with the high pick-up points that they’ve maintained throughout this postseason. It’s a turn-down more in lockstep with (but still lower than) their regular-season matchups with the Dream, but it was still stark to see how drastic the shift was. The pick-up point numbers, by game:
Game 1 vs Dallas: 53.4 feet
Game 2: 59.1 feet
Game 3: 46.3 feet
Game 1 vs Las Vegas: 51.2 feet
Game 2: 54.3 feet
Game 3: 52.6 feet
Game 1 vs Atlanta: 36.9 feet
Reg. season vs. Atlanta: 37.7 feet
Also of note, the Valkyries had shown a willingness to show two-on-the-ball in pick-and-roll against the Dream — specifically Howard — in their regular-season matchups. They flat-out didn’t do it in Game 1.
Later engagement of the ball (but plenty of pressure once it crossed half-court), more conservative coverages (their switchiest game against the Dream all year), and nuanced help rotations put more of an onus on the Dream to win 1v1.
There were moments. Reese scored 11 of her 14 points in the opening frame, winning drives against Thornton and Janelle Salaün. Gray finished with 19, though a majority of her looks were tough ones.
(As a brief aside: anecdotally, it felt like Gray had more success on possessions where she started on the right side of the floor — setting up touches to her dominant/left hand if she came off screens — than she did when starting on the left. As the Dream were in their late fourth-quarter rut, it felt like Gray either didn’t get the ball, or got it flowing left-to-right. I’d like to see more consistent intentionality there.)
But Canada and Howard simply didn’t have it, combining for 20 points on 6-of-23 shooting (4-of-13 on 2s, 2-of-10 on 3s). Being defended by Burton and Williams, respectively, certainly didn’t help, but even against cross-matches they struggled to create clean looks or draw fouls (six combined free throws) to settle things.
To steal home court, the Dream will need to find avenues to flip things. It may be as simple as where Gray gets her touches. A better screening game — I enjoyed the re-screens the Valkyries were able to tap into with Williams, for a direct example — could lead to a bump in shot quality.
If Howard isn’t going to be trapped to the degree she was during the regular-season matchups, she may have more space to attack quicker and more aggressively out of ball screens. Related to that, I’d like to see the volume (eight total, per Second Spectrum) bump up a tad so she isn’t tasked with creating out of thin air against this defense. She noted postgame that the Valkyries forced them to play a brand of basketball they didn’t want to.
Regardless, today’s offensive showing — and parts of the process — is untenable against a defense this good.