Azerbaijan recorded an $11.09 billion foreign trade surplus in the first eight months of 2026, while the country's strategic foreign exchange reserves approached $90 billion by the beginning of October, supported by elevated oil prices and continued foreign currency inflows.
According to official figures, Azerbaijan's foreign trade turnover reached $33.93 billion between January and August, representing a 7.4% increase in nominal terms compared with the corresponding period of 2025.
However, trade turnover declined by 15.4% in real terms, highlighting a divergence between the value of external trade and the underlying volume of traded goods.
Exports totalled approximately $22.51 billion during the reporting period, while imports stood at $11.42 billion, producing a positive trade balance of $11.09 billion.
Azerbaijani businesses and individuals maintained commercial relations with partners in 175 countries, exporting products to 125 markets and importing goods from 163 countries.
The figures underscore the continued importance of external trade to Azerbaijan's economy, although the decline in real turnover suggests that higher nominal trade values have not been accompanied by an equivalent expansion in physical trade volumes.
The country's external trade surplus has coincided with an excess supply of foreign currency in the domestic market.
According to the Central Bank of Azerbaijan (CBA), exchange offices purchased $673 million more in cash foreign currency from customers than they sold during the first eight months of the year.
The surplus contributed to conditions under which the Central Bank intervened in the foreign exchange market by purchasing foreign currency.
By the end of September, the CBA's official foreign currency reserves had reached $15.36 billion, compared with $15.30 billion at the end of August.
During the first eight months of 2026, the Bank's reserves increased by 32.9% relative to the beginning of the year.
Azerbaijan's broader strategic foreign exchange reserves, which include the assets of the State Oil Fund of Azerbaijan (SOFAZ) alongside central bank reserves, have also expanded considerably in recent years.
Strategic reserves stood at $68.5 billion at the end of 2023, increased to $71 billion in 2024 and reached $85.1 billion by the end of 2025.
As of October 1, 2026, the figure stood at $89.38 billion, representing a year-on-year increase of 9.7% and growth of approximately 5% since the beginning of the year.
Nevertheless, the reserves declined by $1.39 billion during September, indicating that the overall upward trajectory has been accompanied by short-term fluctuations.
Elevated international oil prices remain an important factor supporting Azerbaijan's external revenues and balance of payments.
According to the Central Bank's balance of payments statistics, the average crude oil price during the first half of 2026 was $94.50 per barrel.
This was approximately 45.4% above the $65-per-barrel benchmark incorporated into the government's 2026 state budget.
The draft budget for 2027 similarly assumes an average annual oil price of $65 per barrel, reflecting a more conservative fiscal planning benchmark than prevailing market prices.
In its July forecast, the Central Bank projected average oil prices of $87.70 per barrel in 2026 and $82.50 in 2027.
Actual prices have recently moved significantly above those projections.
On October 9, the CIF price of Azerbaijan's Azeri Light crude reached $130.81 per barrel. During the October 5–9 trading week, the average price rose by 4.2% to $126.90.
Such price levels can generate additional export revenues and support foreign currency inflows, particularly given the continuing importance of hydrocarbons in Azerbaijan's export structure.
However, the extent to which higher oil prices translate into stronger reserves also depends on export volumes, government transfers, investment income and movements in global financial markets.
Current account surplus reaches 12.4% of GDP
Azerbaijan's balance of payments data for the first half of 2026 also points to a substantial external surplus.
The country's current account recorded a positive balance of $4.7 billion, equivalent to 12.4% of gross domestic product.
The current account measures transactions with the rest of the world involving goods, services, primary income and secondary income, providing a broader picture of external economic performance than merchandise trade alone.
During the same period, net foreign financial assets associated with capital and financial flows increased by $3.3 billion, while net foreign financial liabilities rose by approximately $300 million.
Reserve assets increased by around $1.4 billion as a result of balance of payments transactions.
These figures suggest that Azerbaijan's external position remained strong during the first half of the year, supported by export earnings and the accumulation of foreign assets.
Nevertheless, final current account and balance of payments figures for the second half of 2026 have not yet been published.
The Central Bank's latest numerical projections envisage a current account surplus of $6.1 billion for 2026 as a whole, followed by $5.2 billion in 2027.
However, in its September monetary policy decision, the regulator indicated that the 2026 forecast could be revised upwards.