* Pagasa Visayas chief Al Quiblat stated cloud seeding is impractical for Cebu’s narrow geography, as induced rainfall risks being blown offshore away from target land areas.
* The ongoing El Niño phenomenon suppresses necessary cloud development, making weather modification ineffective while Pagasa forecasts rainfall deficits of 21 to 60 percent through March 2027.
* Cebu faces initial dry conditions by late December, a dry spell in January, and potential drought by February, prompting DOST 7 to map vulnerable areas and boost water security.
CLOUD seeding may not be a practical solution for Cebu as it braces for the effects of El Niño, primarily because the province’s narrow geography makes it difficult to guarantee that induced rain will actually fall over land.
The Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (Pagasa) Visayas noted that Cebu’s elongated shape poses a significant challenge for weather modification efforts.
“Ang cloud seeding, for me, is not practical in Cebu. Kung imo tan-awon ang Cebu, elongated, pataas, panipis siya,” Pagasa Visayas chief Alfredo “Al” Quiblat said in a media forum.
(For me, cloud seeding is not practical in Cebu. If you look at Cebu, it is elongated, long and narrow.)
The mechanics of weather modification
Because clouds are in constant motion, any rain produced through cloud seeding over a narrow strip of land like Cebu has a high probability of being blown offshore, missing the agricultural areas and watersheds that need it most.
Cloud seeding is a weather-modification technique that introduces substances into suitable clouds to encourage the formation of larger water droplets or ice crystals, increasing the likelihood of precipitation. However, the process cannot create rain from clear skies. An operation requires existing clouds with sufficient moisture and the right atmospheric conditions to be successful.
Compounding effects of El Niño
The ongoing El Niño phenomenon creates a second major obstacle for the province. The weather pattern generally suppresses rainfall and reduces the formation of the specific rain-bearing clouds required for seeding operations.
“Di man sab 100 percent ang cloud seeding, nya during El Niño, gamay kaayo’g chances nga duna’y development sa mga clouds,” Quiblat said.
(Cloud seeding is not 100 percent effective, and during El Niño, there is a very low chance of cloud development.)
Because the effectiveness of cloud seeding is never guaranteed and depends heavily on wind and atmospheric factors, Quiblat suggested the procedure is more feasible in neighboring Bohol. Bohol’s wider landmass provides a much larger target to catch induced rainfall.
Looming drought and local preparations
The unsuitability of cloud seeding leaves Cebu searching for other solutions as it faces an extended dry period. Pagasa forecasts rainfall to drop below normal from November through March 2027, with deficits ranging from 21 percent to 60 percent. This means the province is expected to receive significantly less rain than usual over the next several months.
Initial dry conditions are expected to develop by the end of December, transitioning into a dry spell in January. If the rainfall deficit continues, a full drought could set in by February and March, with environmental impacts potentially lasting until June.
The lack of rain threatens to disrupt crop production, fisheries and household water supplies. To help soften the blow, the Department of Science and Technology 7 is currently mapping vulnerable agricultural areas and developing specific measures to improve water security across the region. / DPC