Rays Are 1 Win Away: 3 Takeaways From ALCS Game 5

The Rays have taken control of the ALCS after winning two out of three games on the road at Progressive Field. Tampa Bay leads Cleveland, 3-2, in the best-of-seven series. The Rays head back to Tropicana Field with home-field advantage and the momentum, pitching depth, and timely hitting to get it done. All they need to reach the World Series is one more win. Here are my takeaways from the Rays’ 3-1 win in Game 5: Three elbow surgeries and a whole lot of hard work and flawless execution later, Rays ace Drew Rasmussen has continued to be dominant when his team needs him the most. Again, in Sunday’s important swing game against the Guardians, Rasmussen was nails. He held Cleveland to seven innings of one-run ball, allowing just four hits and one walk while striking out six. Of the 21 outs he recorded, 11 of them were on the ground, pointing to how much he trusts his defense to help him out. When trouble came in the seventh inning after Guardians first baseman Nathaniel Lowe led off with a single, Rasmussen expertly got out of it with a pop up and a double play to end the threat. He never panicked. Particularly in the face of great pressure and heightened tension, Rasmussen doesn’t blink. The 31-year-old has a 1.29 ERA (three earned runs in 21 innings pitched) across three postseason starts this October. That includes when he pitched a no-hitter into the eighth inning of ALDS Game 1 against the Yankees. Going even further back to the regular season, from August 24 to Sunday’s ALCS Game 5 start, Rasmussen owns an incredible 1.38 ERA in his last nine starts this year. The Rays finally have legitimate big bats, featuring Junior Caminero, Jonathan Aranda and Yandy Diaz, to out-slug their opponents in overwhelming ways. That addition of slug, mostly off the bat of Caminero, who cranked out 42 home runs in the regular season, has nicely complemented their always-excellent pitching depth and clean defense, and hitting homers was one of the main reasons they were able to run the table and lead the AL East all year. But, in Game 5, the Rays didn’t need to hit it out of the ballpark to overpower the Guardians. Instead, they relied on other, effective strategies — like being excellent decision makers against Cleveland’s talented rookie right-hander, Parker Messick. The Rays loaded the bases against Messick in the top of the first inning after a leadoff double from Diaz, a one-out walk from Ryan Vilade, and a two-out single from Chandler Simpson. When it was up to No. 6 hitter Jonny DeLuca to find a way to come through early for Tampa, all he had to do was keep his bat on his shoulder. Messick threw him changeups, fastballs, a sinker, and DeLuca wouldn’t bite. Finally, on the fifth pitch of the at-bat, DeLuca took ball four and forced in Tampa Bay’s first run of the game on a bases-loaded walk. One by one, the Rays kept adding on. Three more base hits in the second inning led to their second run of the game. Messick was knocked out of his start after just two innings. Simpson led off the third with a double to right. He promptly stole third base and scored on Liam Hicks’ single to center. The Rays took a 3-0 lead with Rasmussen dealing and keeping the Guardians at bay. The Rays can beat you in multiple ways. It’s their patience and composure at the plate. It’s their elite bat-to-ball ability once they get a pitch to hit. When they get baserunners on, they can run. It’s their speed, their impact, their focus and relentless pressure that makes it exhausting to face their lineup. The Guardians lost two out of three at home and now they face elimination in Tampa. They’ll have to win out the rest of the series if they want to advance to the World Series. Sound familiar? Maybe this is exactly where they wanted to be. They’ve already done the improbable once this October. Why not one more time? The Guardians became the first team in franchise history to rally from an 0-2 series deficit when they beat the White Sox in a deciding Game 5 of the ALDS. Now they have to do it again, with the odds favoring the Rays at Tropicana Field, the building where they’re most dangerous. The Rays had the best home record (55-26, .679 win percentage) across all major-league teams this season. It was their first year back at the Trop after Hurricane Milton destroyed the stadium’s roof in October 2024. Cleveland suffered some atypical defensive errors in Games 1 and 2 of the ALCS, including two mistakes from the usually sure-handed third baseman Jose Ramirez, which highlighted how difficult it is for opposing teams to play comfortably on Tropicana’s turf. Plus, the Rays took five out of six at home in the regular season against Cleveland. Still, the Guardians managed to win Game 1 of this series on the road, so it’s not all doom and gloom for the Cleveland faithfuls. 3 ½. What’s next? The Guardians’ biggest hope to tie the series at 3-3 lies in right-hander Gavin Williams, who was able to hold the Rays to two runs in five innings his last time out in Thursday's Game 3. Williams struck out nine Tampa Bay batters and allowed just one walk in that stellar outing, helping the Guardians win the game. Williams has been exceptional for Cleveland this October, recording a 2.16 ERA in five games (four starts) and 16 ⅔ innings pitched.