Kim Jong-un's latest trip to China has drawn attention to the chances of reviving talks between North Korea and the United States. North Korea has previously coordinated its U.S. strategy with Beijing ahead of summits with Washington, and major diplomatic events are approaching, including the U.S. midterm elections and the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) leaders' meeting. Analysts said, however, that it remains unclear whether the trip — which appeared weighted toward economic cooperation between the two countries — will lead to actual dialogue with Washington.
According to North Korean and Chinese state media including the Korean Central News Agency and Xinhua, the talks held on the 24th in Dandong, China, between Kim and Wang Huning, chairman of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference, were attended by North Korean Foreign Minister Choe Son-hui, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi and Vice Foreign Minister Ma Zhaoxu. Ma is senior to other vice ministers such as Hua Chunying and Miao Deyu and handles the full range of diplomatic affairs, but is also regarded as a key figure on China's U.S. policy team.
The timing could also accelerate discussion of talks with Washington. The U.S. midterm elections on Nov. 3 local time and the APEC leaders' meeting in Shenzhen on Nov. 18-19 have both been cited as potential turning points. Kim traveled to China three times in 2018 and 2019, ahead of his first and second summits with the United States, to coordinate strategy toward Washington with Chinese President Xi Jinping.
Yang Moo-jin, chair professor at the University of North Korean Studies, said the timing works in Kim's favor. "For Kim, this is a moment to raise Xi's standing by casting him as a mediator while drawing U.S. President Donald Trump, who faces midterm elections, toward talks," Yang said. "If there were positive discussions about North Korea-U.S. dialogue this time, there is a possibility that Foreign Minister Wang will visit the United States or that Foreign Minister Choe will visit Russia before long."
Still, the schedule for the trip focused on economic cooperation between the two countries, suggesting dialogue with Washington may not have been a main agenda item. If communication between Washington and Pyongyang had already progressed to some degree before talks with Beijing, Kim would very likely have met Xi himself. The absence of such a meeting suggests little progress on the U.S. front.
Trump also backed away on the 19th from the prospect of meeting Kim around the APEC leaders' meeting, saying he did not know whether it would happen. Until recently he had expressed confidence that talks with North Korea would take place this year. There has also been no confirmed sign of behind-the-scenes contact through North Korea's mission to the United Nations in New York, currently the only communication channel between the two sides. China, for its part, appears unlikely to want attention diverted to a North Korea-U.S. summit at an APEC meeting it is hosting.
Above all, unlike in 2018, North Korea has little reason to rush into talks with Washington while it continues to deepen ties with China and Russia. Pyongyang has set recognition as a nuclear weapons state and the lifting of sanctions as conditions for dialogue, demands Washington has found difficult to accept.