After a dominant win over Arizona State in Week 5, Baylor had an embarrassing loss at home to TCU in Week 7. Now, the Bears hit the road and hope to right the ship. Baylor will get a winnable game at Kansas, but the Bears are going to need to play more of a complete game to get back into the win column in Week 8.
The staff of Baylor on SI predicted over/unders for Baylor's game against Kansas.
Dawson Pendergrass O/U 60.5 rushing yards vs. Kansas
Trent Knoop - Under
Kansas has the worst rushing defense in the Big 12 and this is a week the Bears could really try and establish their run game. Dawson Pendergrass has been over 61 yards in three of six games this season, but in each of Baylor's last two games, Pendergrass has had eight and nine touches, respectively. I think Baylor has four backs it wants to touch the ball, and that will make it hard on Pendergrass' yards this weekend.
Brad Teague - Over
Pendergrass needs to have some kind of big day against a Jayhawks defense that just gave up 350 rushing yards. So far this season, he's been impressive at fighting for extra yards, but at 3.63 YPC, he's also gained the fewest average rushing yards out of any of Baylor's running backs. Against a softer defense than TCU's, Pendergrass should be able to run for more than 61 yards. I'm taking the OVER and will be quite disappointed if Pendergrass once again can't establish himself as the dominant force that he wants to be.
Blake Hollingsworth - Over
Kansas’ struggling run defense makes this a good opportunity for Dawson Pendergrass to bounce back. The Jayhawks are allowing 174.3 rushing yards per game after giving up 287 to Utah and 359 to Kansas State. With Kansas holding up better against the pass, Baylor has even more reason to establish the run after struggling against TCU. Pendergrass will still share carries, but the Jayhawks’ tackling issues make me like his chances to get over 60.5 yards.
Offensive line allows O/U 1.5 sacks
Trent Knoop - Over
The Kansas defense does nothing special getting to the quarterback. In fact, the Jayhawks only have 10 sacks as a team. But let's not act like this Bears' offensive line has been good. Baylor has really struggled on this side of the trenches, and DJ Lagway has been under too much pressure. Finding a way to get Lagway on the ground twice in this game isn't all that far-fetched. Baylor's O-line needs to see massive improvements.
Brad Teague - Under
Let's face it, Baylor's offensive line has had their share of struggles this season, but they haven't given up all of that many sacks. I don't expect the O-line to change much in their assistance of the run game, but DJ Lagway should be able to remain safe and off the turf against the Jayhawks' defense. I'm tentative, but still comfortable taking the UNDER for this one.
Blake Hollingsworth - Over
Kansas isn’t an overwhelming pass-rushing team, but two sacks feels attainable against Baylor’s offensive line. The Bears have allowed 12 through six games, including four against TCU, while the Jayhawks have recorded 10. A greater commitment to the run should help Baylor avoid some obvious passing situations. Still, after watching the protection break down against TCU, I need to see more before trusting the Bears to allow fewer than two.
Baylor's leading pass catcher has O/U 80.5 yards
Trent Knoop - Over
While Kansas doesn't have that great of a defense, it's actually right on par with TCU. The Horned Frogs have the No. 2 passing defense in the Big 12, and Kansas is at No. 3, two yards shy of TCU. But even last week, Gavin Freeman had 76 yards. DJ Lagway will continue to look his way, and Kansas isn't as talented as TCU is. Look for Freeman to get his yards.
Brad Teague - Over
The Bears have been spreading the ball around to more receivers in their recent games, and not a single player had 80 receiving yards against TCU. I expect this to change against Kansas however as not only should Lagway have more time to find and open receiver, but the receivers themselves should have more success in the open field against Kansas than they did against TCU. If we remove that game from factoring in, Baylor has been able to throw the ball this season successfully, and because of that, I'm taking the OVER on this one.
Blake Hollingsworth - Over
I don’t expect Baylor to throw as much as usual, but I still like its leading receiver — assuming it's Gavin Freeman — to finish with more than 80.5 yards and draw his usual 10-12 targets. With his ability to gain yards after the catch, he won’t need many deep completions to clear that mark if he gets his typical workload. I'm also cautiously optimistic that Baylor will succeed on the ground, giving Freeman more room to work underneath.
Kansas QB Isaiah Marshall has O/U 52.5 rushing yards
Trent Knoop - Under
Isaiah Marshall is Kansas' No. 2 runner behind Dyland Edwards, by three yards. Marshall has run for 110 and 117 yards in two of the last three games, and could really stress the Bears' defense. Baylor has only faced one true dual-threat runner this season and that was Byrum Brown from Auburn. He was held to 21 yards in the game. The Bears' defensive front is solid, and assuming they are gap disciplined, Marshall won't have an easy time running.
Brad Teague - Under
Baylor's defense has been fantastic at preventing the running game this season and even limited TCU to 33 total rushing yards in their most recent game. I don't expect Isaiah Marshall to be the player to change that trend. Mobile as he may be at the quarterback position, Marshall is going to be under constant pressure from the Bears' defensive front. I'm comfortable taking the UNDER here.
Blake Hollingsworth - Under
Marshall is capable of hurting Baylor with his legs, but I lean under against a defensive front that played well against TCU. His two big rushing performances have boosted his season average, while he has averaged 36.3 yards in his other four games. Kansas’ offensive line has been inconsistent, giving the Bears a chance to disrupt runs before Marshall gets into space. Baylor will need to stay disciplined, but I think its front can do enough to keep him below 52.5 yards.
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