The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) has forecast a further intensification of El Niño conditions between November 2026 and January 2027, with warming expected to peak around December 2026.
According to the WMO’s Global Seasonal Climate Update for November 2026 to January 2027, multi-model forecasts indicate a strengthening of El Niño conditions in the Pacific Ocean over the coming months.
The seasonal average sea surface temperature anomaly in the Niño 3.4 region is projected to reach approximately 3.8°C above normal during the three-month period, with warming expected to peak in December.
The WMO stated that the relatively narrow differences among individual forecast models indicate a high level of confidence in the projections.
Meanwhile, in the Indian Ocean, the positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is expected to weaken towards normal conditions, with a seasonal average anomaly of approximately +0.3°C.
Sea surface temperatures in the equatorial Atlantic Ocean are also forecast to remain warmer than normal, with above-average temperatures expected in both the North and South Tropical Atlantic regions.
The WMO’s Global Seasonal Climate Update is issued monthly and provides forecasts of global temperature and rainfall patterns for the coming three months, helping countries prepare for potential climate-related impacts. (Newswire)
We’re headed for an El Niño that is — quite literally — off the charts.
WMO’s Global Seasonal Climate Update shows that El Niño is forecast to exceed the scale of global monitoring charts. Its impacts will be felt well into 2027.
Read the full update: https://t.co/TNAzqhUN1h https://t.co/wepfQM8Z7z
— World Meteorological Organization (@WMO) October 22, 2026
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