NBA Is on the Precipice of the Victor Wembanyama Era

While the NBA has never seen anybody quite like Victor Wembanyama, he snugly fits a familiar profile in the bigger picture: the larger-than-life (literally) generational superstar whose talents can define an era. He’s cut from the same cloth as Hakeem, Shaq and LeBron as amazing prospects draped in Hall of Fame-caliber potential from the moment they entered the basketball world’s consciousness. As with those impressive names, Wemby, too, didn’t need much time to start proving it at the NBA level. Production was immediate and stardom apparent from the opening games of his rookie season in the way old heads regale the young bucks of legends long past.

But even acknowledging that... this guy is way ahead of schedule. Perhaps to the degree we’ve never seen before.

In his third NBA season (and only his second full one after a campaign cut short due to deep vein thrombosis), Wembanyama led the Spurs to an NBA Finals appearance. He took down the defending champions along the way and didn’t look out of place upon reaching the doorstep of a championship. Ultimately the 22-year-old star wasn’t ready to get the job done. But this wasn’t LeBron in ‘07 or, to use something resembling a modern contemporary, Tatum in ‘22—players who were good enough to get close to the Larry O’Brien Trophy but clearly still had strides to make before being good enough to win the whole thing.

No, Wembanyama is clearly good enough to be the centerpiece of a title team right now. If a few decisions are made differently or a few more shots fall (or even if one rebound bounced at a slightly different angle away from OG Anunoby), Wemby could be a champion right now. You don’t get that close through luck and circumstance. It’s talent, skill and a quality group of teammates all contributing into the nightly excellence required to play championship-caliber basketball. The last trait is merely good fortune through Wemby’s eyes, but the first two are unbelievable to see from a player with this little experience. It was that same lack of experience that sunk his team’s chances, yet the other factors remain.

We’ve truly never seen anything like it in the modern era. The last No. 1 pick to make the NBA Finals within their first three seasons was Tim Duncan. Before that? Magic Johnson. And those two examples were famously flanked by Hall of Fame teammates primed to compete for titles the moment they were drafted. Not so with Wembanyama. The talent around him is nothing to sneeze at but De’Aaron Fox is not David Robinson.

All that is to illustrate how unprecedented Wembanyama’s progression is. Even superstar talents who enjoy bronze recreations of their faces in Springfield rarely get this good, this quickly.

Once they do, though, they rule supreme for a long time. Which then begs the question—are we witnessing the dawn of the Wembanyama era in the NBA?

It’s hard to shake the feeling, isn’t it? Wembanyama is capable of basically any feat you can think of on a basketball court. Rack up six blocks? Just another Tuesday. How about draining a half-dozen threes? Easy work. A 40-point, 10-rebound performance in a clutch win over an elite opponent? A sweat must’ve been broken, but we couldn’t tell. His talent is both singular and all-consuming to a degree reserved for only the greatest two-way players in the history of the game.

And he can get so much better. The gigantic center is in the middle of his progression arc; 22-year-olds are supposed to be improving year-over-year. What does that look like for Wemby? his offensive game is nothing resembling defined. He has no go-to move other than “being taller than everybody else.” He’s brilliant at taking advantage of defensive weaknesses but his sense of the court isn’t yet at the point where he can easily anticipate what opportunities those weaknesses will reveal. More broadly, Wembanyama still has room to grow as a shooter, facilitator and perimeter defender.

Arching above all this discussion about Wemby could become is a certain belief that he will push the boundaries of what’s possible because he is so open about his desire to be great. That’s as rare as all his other prodigious talents. The Spurs’ phenom openly desires to earn his place on the pantheon of NBA stars who looked like gods amongst mortals when they took the floor. It’s what makes the impossible feel inevitable. The brain can’t comprehend a 7’ 4” center capable of being one of the best scorers in the NBA while simultaneously dominating on defense to historic levels. And yet... Wemby exists as just that. An MVP and DPOY season isn’t out of reach, a mind-boggling prospect for the modern game. It’s even harder to grasp when considering Wembanyama isn’t old enough to rent a car in some places.

Every era-defining superstar to this point has followed the same general formula, even if the specifics vary. They spend a year or two getting their feet underneath them. Then they learn to dominate the regular season before taking lumps in the playoffs; suffering through the crucible of multiple painful playoff failures is a right of passage. Next they excel from October through June—but taking the final step to doing what it takes to win a title requires a lesson or two more. It’s an experience shared by modern greats like Steph Curry and Nikola Jokić to Michael Jordan himself. Only at that point, when wounds become scar tissue and the banner has been raised, does the league belong to any one player.

Wembanyama looks like he’s skipping steps. He’s always refused to acknowledge our preconceived notions of what should be possible, so maybe it shouldn’t come as a surprise. Yet it feels shocking all the same that at 22, with Hall of Fame-level players dotting the Association, the present is on the verge of belonging to him and him alone.

It’s not his yet. A ring is a prerequisite to any of these conversations, which has always been the case and a consistent talking point when discussing Wembanyama’s ascension to “face of the league” status. Yet this is the first season where a title appears within reach. The first season where we can see the shadow Wembanyama’s figure might cast over the next 10-plus years of NBA basketball.

Once he learns how to win at the highest level? Once his bad games are better than everybody else’s good games? The onus will fall on the rest of the NBA to knock Wembanyama off the pedestal.

The Wemby era is nearly upon us. The question is only if he’s about to kick down the door and loudly announce the start of that era right now—or if a few more lumps are needed.

Listen to SI’s NBA podcast, Open Floor, below or on Apple and Spotify. Watch the show on SI’s YouTube channel.