The Royals and power hitting have really never been a consistent combo throughout their history. George Brett and Salvador Perez are the only Royals with 300+ career home runs with the team, and past that, there is a dip on the all-time home run list. The Royals have had solid power hitters such as Jorge Soler, John Mayberry Sr., and Mike Moustakas, but they either didn't stay long enough or weren't consistent 30+ home run guys.
Despite the history of lacking power, the Royals might have secured their future home run king if they extend him long term, in Jac Caglianone. 2026 was a breakout year for the lumbering 6'4" outfielder as he slashed .289/.340/.494 for an OPS of .834 and a wRC+ of 129. Let's dive a little deeper into his 2026 breakout and why he could be the future home run king of the Royals.
The Results Speak for Themself
To sum up Jac Caglianone's profile in one sentence, it would be that he hits the ball hard and as often as other prolific sluggers in the league. In his Baseball Savant percentiles, he ranks above the 88th percentile in all of barrel rate, average exit velocity (97th percentile), hard-hit rate (98th percentile), and bat speed (96th percentile). To put this season in context, Caglianone put together a similar offensive profile to Pete Alonso in 2026.
For his first full season in the majors, that is a good foundation for becoming one of the prolific sluggers in the Major Leagues. Along with the result numbers, he also improved his batted-ball profile, as he had a line drive rate of 28.7% and a fly ball rate of 22.8%. To go with that, he also improved his pull air rate to 20.1%, which is a key stat for generating power.
While the result numbers and batted-ball profile have seen improvements, the biggest development was that Caglianone could hit pitches. In 2025, the highest batting average he had against any type of pitch was fastballs, but he hit them at a .163 clip. In 2026, he was able to hit everything at a good clip, with a batting clip of .296 against fastballs, .279 against breaking pitches, and .286 on off-speed offerings.
To get more specific, Caglianone smacked 4-seam fastballs and sliders throughout 2026, and per his run value chart those two pitches saw the biggest improvement in results. In 2025, he had run values of -5 on 4-seam fastballs and -4 on sliders and in 2026 those numbers improved to 7 and 13 respectively.
It was a season of improvements across the board for Jac Caglianone and there is still room to grow into that prolific power hitter the Royals haven't really had long term.
Room for Improvement at the Plate and Defensively
Despite all of the improvements in 2026 for Caglianone, there are definitely some things he needs to work on going forward. The biggest thing is that he strikes out a lot (26.0% K-rate) and doesn't walk a lot (6.0% walk rate). In fact, it was a very odd season for both of those numbers for Caglianone as they heavily varied from month to month.
He opened the first month of play with a 9.1% walk rate and 33.3% K-rate, then both dipped to 6.7% and 28.1% for May before spiking up to 9.4% and 29.2%. The trend was that if Caglianone walked more, he struck out more. In months where Caglianone walked more than 6%, he had an average K-rate of 29.2%. That was over four months of the season, and in the other months where he had a walk rate less than 2.2%, he had a K-rate of 19.4%.
At the halfway point of the season, it seemed Caglianone switched his approach to become more aggressive at the plate as he went from a 51.7% swing rate in the first half to 60.2%. That is fine, but with his chase rate being 39.6% pitchers can take advantage of the aggressiveness so he might need to find a sweet spot with his aggression.
Another thing he needs to improve offensively to fully unlock his power is that he needs to raise his launch angle. This year, he had an average launch angle of 7.7 degrees and a launch angle sweet spot of 33.9%, both of which are pretty low for power threats. If he can be in the 10-12 degree range next year, that could see him break out even further.
Now, for the defense, which is a contentious topic within the Royals fandom. The question is whether he stays in the outfield or stays at first base. In right field, he had a pretty bad defensive season, similar to his rookie season, with -4 DRS, -7 FRV, and -9 OAA. At first base, in a limited sample size, he also wasn't great with 0 DRS, -1 OAA, and -2 FRV.
Those aren't great numbers, but his spot lies in right field solely because of his arm and the fact that the Royals need a productive outfield bat. In terms of his arm, he has 100th-percentile arm strength with an average of 98.7 mph on his throws. That arm isn't going to be super useful at first base. It is his second season playing RF full time, so he is still working on that side of the ball and he still provides value with the arm strength alone.
Conclusion
Jac Caglianone is only a couple of tweaks at the plate from a full breakout, and with that, it gives the Royals one of the best power threats they have ever had. Even if the defense never fully develops, he can very easily switch to first base or DH and continue to mash. Heading into 2027, he will be manning RF, and he should be the odds-on favorite to lead the team in most power categories.
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