West Virginia desperately needed to get back in the win column last week to keep this season from going off the rails. They were able to do so, and while they certainly won't apologize for winning, they know that they have to play much better football on the defensive side of the ball if they want to win more games down the stretch.
With that unit in particular, it's the same story, different week. They've tried a bunch of different things to fix the problem, and nothing has worked to this point. The staff is not going to leave any stone unturned, which may mean shuffling up the personnel.
This week, the Mountaineers head to Fort Worth to take on the TCU Horned Frogs, who are coming off an emotional victory over their archrival, Baylor. The game didn't necessarily come down to the wire with there being no points scored in the fourth quarter and the Frogs winning 17-6, but it was an extremely physical and taxing game for both teams.
What the ESPN FPI says for WVU vs. TCU
According to the ESPN Football Power Index (FPI), the Mountaineers have just a 20.2% chance to take down the Frogs and improve to 5-3 on the season and 2-3 in Big 12 Conference play. Meanwhile, TCU has a 79.8% chance to pick up their second straight victory and get above .500 for the first time in over a month.
Too high? Too low? Just Right?
I don't just want to give my prediction for the game away, but I would be surprised to some degree if West Virginia actually wins this one. The Horned Frogs have a salty defense and are by far the toughest challenge the Mountaineers have seen to this point. If the defense allows this struggling TCU offense to just look average, it could be a long afternoon in the heart of Texas.
All that being said, only a 20% chance of winning? I don't agree with that. With how high-powered this West Virginia attack is, they are going to have a shot in every game they play. TCU may slow them down, but they're not going to completely shut this offense down. If it gets into a back-and-forth affair, which WVU is accustomed to, then the advantage goes to the Mountaineers. I'd give Rich Rod's squad around a 40% chance, maybe 45%.
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