Malawi could face food shortages, rising food prices and electricity supply disruptions as the El Niño weather phenomenon threatens agricultural production and power generation in the country.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF), in its October 2026 Regional Economic Outlook Update for Sub-Saharan Africa, warns that below-normal rainfall expected between October 2026 and March 2027 could affect Malawi and other countries in the region.
The Fund says poor rainfall could lead to crop losses, reducing farmers’ incomes and pushing up food prices, while low water levels in reservoirs could affect hydropower generation.
Malawi’s vulnerability is compounded by foreign exchange shortages, which are limiting the country’s ability to import essential commodities such as food, fuel and fertiliser.
The IMF warns that responding to potential shortages and electricity disruptions could increase the country’s import costs and put further pressure on government finances.
It has urged governments in the region to prepare funding arrangements and strengthen systems for delivering assistance to vulnerable households, farmers and communities likely to be affected.
The Fund also recommends using existing beneficiary registers and payment systems to ensure that support reaches affected people quickly when food or electricity shortages occur.
The report stresses the importance of regional coordination as El Niño-related risks are expected to persist through February 2027.
The IMF says early preparations and reliable funding mechanisms will be important in helping Malawi limit the impact of weather-related shocks on households and the wider economy.