BRAZIL · ELECTIONS
Published Monday, 19 October, 1:55 a.m. ET · Source: BTG Pactual/Nexus poll
Key Facts
- The country Brazil, Latin America’s largest country, elects its president in a runoff on Sunday 25 October between President Lula and Senator Flávio Bolsonaro.
- What happened On Monday 19 October, the BTG Pactual/Nexus poll put the two candidates level at 50% each of valid votes.
- The numbers Flávio Bolsonaro has 50.3% and Lula 49.7% of valid votes, a gap of 0.6 points inside the 2-point margin of error.
- The change The same poll on 13 October had Flávio at 52% and Lula at 48%, so Lula rose from 48% to 50% when rounded.
- Fieldwork Nexus interviewed 2,002 voters on 16, 17 and 18 October, with a 95% confidence level and TSE registration BR-04499/2026.
- Power Index Brazil ranks 1st of 14 in The Rio Times Latin America Power Index, with 75.0 points (October 2026 edition).
- Prediction markets Polymarket gives Flávio Bolsonaro a 78.5% chance of winning the 25 October runoff (19 October, 1:49 a.m. ET). Polymarket puts Flávio Bolsonaro’s chance of winning at 79% and Kalshi at 79% (Lula: 22% and 21%), as of 19 October, 2:20 am ET; prices are bets, not polls.
- Still open Interviews ended on 18 October, the day of the first runoff debate, so the poll cannot show its full effect.
The BTG Pactual/Nexus poll for the Brazil election 2026 shows Flávio Bolsonaro and President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva level at 50% of valid votes each, released on Monday 19 October. The gap is 0.6 points in Flávio’s favour, well inside the 2-point margin of error.
The vote on Sunday 25 October decides who runs Latin America’s largest economy, a result US investors in Brazilian stocks and the real follow closely (see the Brazil election polls and Brazil runoff date). Nexus runs the poll for BTG Pactual, a large Brazilian investment bank, and its previous survey had shown a 4-point lead for Flávio.
What the BTG/Nexus Runoff Poll Found
Flávio Bolsonaro, senator for Rio de Janeiro and the conservative candidate, has 50.3% of valid votes and Lula, Brazil’s president, has 49.7%, DMA Notícias reported. Valid votes leave out blank, null and undecided answers, which is how Brazil’s electoral court (TSE) counts the final result.
Nexus interviewed 2,002 voters on 16, 17 and 18 October, with a margin of error of 2 points and a 95% confidence level, according to Transmissão Política. The survey is registered with the TSE as BR-04499/2026.
How the Race Moved in One Week
The previous BTG/Nexus survey, released on 13 October, had Flávio ahead 52% to 48% in valid votes, Exame reported. That poll was taken on 10, 11 and 12 October and showed the same 2-point margin of error.
In the new poll Lula rose from 48% to 50% and Flávio fell from 52% to 50% when rounded, Transmissão Política reported. One poll cannot show a lasting shift, and the movement is small next to the margin of error.
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Lula’s Approval Ticks Up
Nexus also measured approval of Lula’s performance as president, which rose 1.9 points to 47.2% while disapproval stood at 48.8%, bCharts reported. Approval and disapproval are now almost level.
Approval matters in a runoff because a president seeking to stay in office is judged on his record. The numbers still describe the days of the interviews, not the final result.
What It Means for US Readers
If you hold Brazilian stocks, bonds or US-listed shares of Brazilian companies, a race this close can mean price swings until the result is known. The Brazil election polls page lists every survey so you can compare the pollsters.
If you follow US politics or trade, the winner will set Brazil’s course with Washington for the next four years. A 0.6-point gap is a tie in statistical terms, so neither candidate is a certain winner.
What Prediction Markets Say
On Polymarket, an online prediction market, bettors give Flávio Bolsonaro a 78.5% chance of winning the 25 October runoff and Lula 21.5% (19 October, 1:49 a.m. ET). The “Brazil Presidential Election” market has drawn about US$187.8 million in total bets, and the full Brazil election odds are on our odds page.
These are bets, not polls, and they can move fast on new surveys. Kalshi, a market regulated in the US by the CFTC, also lists Brazil contracts.
Why we show this: prediction markets turn real-money bets into a live probability that moves within minutes of the news, which is why investors, campaigns and newsrooms in the United States now follow them closely. We show them next to polls and official results, never instead of them.
Prediction markets · who wins the runoff
Implied chance of winning Brazil’s presidency on 25 October, from traders’ prices.
Polymarket
Flávio Bolsonaro 78.6% · Lula 21.5% (US$188 million traded)
Kalshi (regulated in the US by the CFTC)
Flávio Bolsonaro 79% · Lula 21%
As of 19 October, 2:20 am ET (07:20 Lisbon), updated every 20 minutes. Prices are bets, not polls, and can move fast.
Why we show this: prediction markets turn real-money bets into a live probability that moves within minutes of the news, which is why investors, campaigns and newsrooms in the United States now follow them closely. We show them next to polls and official results, never instead of them.
What Is Not Known
The total vote shares including blank, null and undecided answers are not confirmed here, and the full questionnaire is not yet public. Interviews ended on 18 October, the day of the first runoff debate, so any debate effect will show up only in later polls.
It is not known how many undecided and swing voters will turn out on 25 October, or which way they will go. Any poll measures opinion on the days of the interviews and does not forecast the result.
More: Brazil news in English, every day from The Rio Times.
Frequently Asked Questions
Who leads Brazil’s latest runoff poll?
The new BTG Pactual/Nexus poll has Flávio Bolsonaro at 50.3% and Lula at 49.7% of valid votes, a tie within the margin of error. It was released on Monday 19 October.
What is the margin of error?
It is 2 percentage points, with a 95% confidence level. The 0.6-point gap between the candidates is smaller than that.
How did the poll change from last week?
On 13 October, the same poll had Flávio ahead 52% to 48% in valid votes. Lula has gained roughly one to two points since.
When is Brazil’s runoff?
Brazilians vote on Sunday 25 October, six days after this poll was released. The winner takes office as president for a four-year term.
Who is Nexus?
Nexus is the polling firm behind the BTG/Nexus survey series. BTG Pactual, a large Brazilian investment bank, commissions it.
Sources: DMA Notícias, 19 October 2026; Transmissão Política, 19 October 2026; bCharts, 19 October 2026; Exame, 13 October 2026; SP Agora, 13 October 2026.
This article was produced by The Rio Times’ automated newsroom system. How we use AI · Report an error · Editorial responsibility: Matthias Camenzind, Editor-in-Chief
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