Enab Baladi, Amir Hakouk
Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa’s visit to Riyadh on October 6 and his meeting with Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman renewed questions about Syria’s place in emerging regional security arrangements, particularly as the visit followed the start of implementation of the Mecca Joint Defense Agreement between Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and Pakistan.
Syrian Foreign Minister Asaad al-Shaibani said in August that Damascus was considering joining the agreement, without announcing a final decision.
On October 5, the three countries announced that they had begun implementing their mutual defense commitments, providing military forces and capabilities and rapidly deploying them to Saudi Arabia, amid escalating confrontation with Yemen’s Houthi group.
This also coincided with a message to al-Sharaa from Pakistan’s prime minister, delivered by the chargé d’affaires of the Pakistani embassy in Damascus. Meanwhile, Pakistani Foreign Minister Ishaq Dar said more than six countries had expressed interest in joining the agreement, without naming them.
Against this backdrop, Reuters reported that Syria was considering providing military assistance to Saudi Arabia, either through defensive support or possible military participation. Damascus denied the report, while stressing that any cooperation would take place through official channels and bilateral agreements.
The Significance of the Visit’s Timing
Amer Fakhoury, a professor of public international law and researcher in political and international affairs, believes al-Sharaa’s visit to Riyadh should not be viewed as an ordinary bilateral visit, given that it coincided with three developments: the escalating confrontation with the Houthis, the activation of the Mecca agreement, and expanding political and security coordination between Damascus and Riyadh.
Fakhoury said the timing of the visit made discussions about Syria potentially joining the agreement “a possibility,” but he believes it is too early to say there is an official intention to join.
He pointed to the rapprochement between Damascus, Riyadh, and Ankara, alongside reports that Syria was considering providing military assistance to Saudi Arabia amid developments in Yemen. In his view, Syrian-Saudi relations could move beyond political and economic cooperation toward broader security and military cooperation, even without Syria becoming a member of the agreement.
For his part, Arab affairs researcher Ali Fawzi believes there are political indicators that make it reasonable to consider whether Syria’s accession was discussed. However, the available information offers no public evidence that a decision has been made or formal negotiations have begun.
Fawzi said the visit could be understood on three levels: political consultation, regional security, and Syria’s reintegration into the regional system. He stressed, however, the need to distinguish between discussing Syria’s role in security arrangements and discussing full membership in the mutual defense agreement.
“President al-Sharaa’s visit to Saudi Arabia can be understood on three levels: political consultation, regional security, and Syria’s reintegration into the regional system. A distinction must be made between discussing Syria’s role in security arrangements and discussing membership in the Mecca agreement.”
Ali Fawzi
Arab affairs researcher
What Does the Pakistani Message Mean?
On October 7, the Syrian Ministry of Foreign Affairs received the chargé d’affaires of the Pakistani embassy in Damascus, who delivered an official message addressed to President Ahmed al-Sharaa from Pakistan’s prime minister. Damascus did not disclose the message’s full contents, leaving any direct connection to the Mecca agreement uncertain.
Fakhoury does not rule out a connection between the message and recent developments, particularly as Pakistan is a key participant in the defense arrangements with Saudi Arabia and Turkey. However, he noted that Syrian-Pakistani relations had developed in recent months and that the two countries had previously discussed defense cooperation.
According to Fakhoury, the message could be part of broader political and security consultations or relate to regional developments. However, there is no confirmation that it included an invitation for Syria to join the Mecca agreement.
Fawzi, meanwhile, considers a connection between the message and the agreement “a political possibility open to discussion, but unproven,” because its contents have not been disclosed.
He suggested that the message could concern bilateral relations, coordination of positions on regional developments, or an initial signal of broader political and security cooperation.
He believes evidence of a connection would become clearer if formal consultations on membership criteria subsequently emerged, if high-level defense and security channels became active between Damascus, Islamabad, Riyadh, and Ankara, or if Syria participated in exercises and arrangements associated with the agreement.
Conditions for Accession
Syria joining the Mecca agreement is no longer merely a theoretical possibility. On August 21, Syrian Foreign Minister Asaad al-Shaibani announced that Damascus was considering joining, without having made a final decision. The announcement came during al-Shaibani’s visit to Pakistan, where he discussed bilateral relations and regional and defense cooperation with Pakistani officials.
According to Fakhoury, Syria has several factors that make it a potential candidate for membership, most notably its geographical position, its growing relations with Saudi Arabia and Turkey, and its desire to regain an influential regional role. He believes Turkey’s participation in the agreement could facilitate Syria’s rapprochement with this security framework.
Conversely, Fakhoury identified rebuilding Syria’s military institutions, unifying its armed forces, and achieving domestic stability as major challenges to any membership, given the reciprocal military obligations imposed by the agreement.
He said gradual security cooperation with member states might be more realistic at this stage than moving directly to membership.
“The main challenges facing Syria if it joins the Mecca agreement are rebuilding its military institutions, unifying its armed forces, and achieving domestic stability.”
Dr. Amer Fakhoury
Researcher in political and international affairs
Fawzi attaches particular importance to Syria’s geopolitical position because of its connections to issues involving Turkey, Iraq, Lebanon, Israel, and Iran. He believes its inclusion could give regional security arrangements greater geographical and political depth, while aligning with efforts to reintegrate Syria into the Arab world and the wider region.
However, according to Fawzi, Damascus faces challenges involving strengthening state institutions, rebuilding a unified national army, unifying command, control, and communications systems, and bringing weapons and armed groups outside state structures under control.
He also noted that the mutual defense agreement imposes concrete obligations, as an armed attack on one member state is treated as an attack on the others. This means Damascus and the founding states must assess Syria’s ability to shoulder commitments that could draw it into military crises it does not choose.
What Would Accession Mean for the Region?
Fakhoury believes Syria’s accession, should it happen in the future, would mark a shift in its regional position, from a country seeking to restore its stability and foreign relations to one participating in regional security arrangements.
For Saudi Arabia, this would strengthen its strategic partnership with Damascus and open opportunities for broader security and economic cooperation. With Turkey, it could lead to further military and security coordination, while with Pakistan it could expand training and defense cooperation.
As for Iran, Fakhoury said it would naturally view the shift as a further decline in its former influence in Syria, particularly if Damascus became more closely tied to a security framework encompassing Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and Pakistan.
Regarding Israel, he believes Syria’s participation in broader defense arrangements could alter some strategic calculations. However, it would not automatically mean that the agreement would come into play in any Syrian-Israeli confrontation, as that would depend on its provisions and obligations.
Fawzi, meanwhile, believes Syria’s accession, if it happens, would form part of a broader regional realignment. However, he expects the process to begin gradually through security cooperation and coordination, followed by partnership or arrangements such as “observer membership,” before reaching full membership.
Al-Sharaa’s visit to Riyadh therefore does not establish that Syrian negotiations to join the Mecca agreement have begun. However, it comes against a backdrop in which Damascus had already announced that it was considering accession, coinciding with the agreement entering its implementation phase and widening discussions about additional countries joining.
According to the two experts, the transition from security cooperation to full membership remains dependent on the readiness of Syrian institutions and the nature of the obligations the new framework would impose.
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