Nifty needs 16 pc returns to reclaim January peak

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 India’s equity benchmark Nifty 50 index still requires about 16 per cent more upside to fully recover to its peak of 26,329 recorded earlier in January this year, a report said on Friday. 

The report from Abakkus Mutual Fund said that the Nifty 50 had risen 1.7 per cent to 22,716 as of September 30, 2026 from its March 2026 low of 22,331.

The headline index has undergone 10–20 per cent corrections 13 times since inception or roughly once every three years and historically recovers to previous peaks in nearly 91 days on average.

The longest recovery period occurred between the March 2025 crash and January 2026, when the Nifty 50 made its last all-time high, the report added. 

Investors who stayed invested in equity markets from April 2005 to September 2026 recorded higher returns than those who missed being invested by a few days.

Staying fully invested throughout the period of April 2005 to September 2026 in the Nifty 50 TRI delivered a robust compounded annual growth rate (CAGR) of 13.19 per cent.

However, missing just the 5 best days dragged the returns down to a CAGR of 10.86 per cent, the report said. Returns flatlined to a CAGR of 0.66 per cent for investors who missed the best 50 days, it added.

A recent report from brokerage Bernstein said Nifty 50 is likely to touch 25,000 in December 2026 down from the previous 26,000 target, adding that reduction in long-term capital gains (LTCG) alone cannot trigger sustained foreign institutional investor (FII) inflows.

It reduced the target due to a macroeconomic backdrop, elevated crude oil prices and supply‑chain pressures, weighing on the markets along with a lack of meaningful earnings upgrades.

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