First Minister John Swinney backs second Brexit vote ahead of SNP conference

Ahead of John Swinney’s first SNP conference with his own mandate, the party is keen to show off its new polling on independence.

Commissioned by the party, the Survation poll shows that once the “don’t knows” are excluded, there is majority support for independence, albeit by a small margin of 52% in favour, to 48% against. 

But this isn’t the only referendum the First Minister wanted to highlight today. Prime Minister Andy Burnham has made headlines lately for dredging up the Brexit wars – and even suggesting at the weekend that Russia had attempted to interfere with the result.

When pressed by STV News about whether the First Minister would back another Brexit referendum, he responded: “I’d be very happy to do so.”

It’s the first time the Scottish leader has been explicit on this.

He went on to say that a rehashing of the Brexit referendum would, in his view, pave the way for a second independence referendum.

He believes that today’s polling combined with the pro-independence majority in Holyrood shows that public opinion has shifted far enough from 2014 levels to make a second poll necessary.

“Independence is now the preferred constitutional option of the people of Scotland,” he asserted. 

But as well as SNP leader, Swinney is the First Minister of Scotland for all the people in Scotland. The SNP has been in power for 20 years, and yet in many key areas progress has halted – if not gone backwards. Recent PISA results showed a significant gap between attainment in Scotland versus England, while A&E waiting times remain well off the Scottish Government’s targets.

Only last month, new drug death figures showed that deaths had increased again to 1,133 last year. On this latter issue, the First Minister deflected, blaming new synthetic opioids for worsening the problem. 

More than 150 days have passed since the Holyrood election in May, but the First Minister isn’t much closer to delivering his flagship campaign announcement – a price cap on essential supermarket foods. And he remains non-committal on issues that would be pivotal in an independent Scotland, like energy.

Swinney refused to say whether he was in favour of green-lighting the Rosebank and Jackdaw projects in the North Sea – and his current energy strategy is careful to avoid being definitive on drilling.

On welfare, the First Minister asserted that Scottish pensioners would ‘lose out’ under the Prime Minister’s plans to reform the pension triple lock in 2030.

He was asked whether he would direct the money that Scotland would receive via Barnett consequentials to pensioners, similar to how the SNP has done with the winter fuel payment after cuts were announced – and somewhat rowed back on – under former prime minister Sir Keir Starmer. Swinney refused to guarantee this, saying it was a hypothetical. 

And the invitation to the current Prime Minister Andy Burnham to attend the SNP conference is very much still extended.

The new Prime Minister has chosen this week to make a speech in Lanarkshire, and though many miles away, Swinney said he is “very welcome” to attend the party conference in Aberdeen to discuss the terms for a second independence referendum.

Like with the SNP’s election campaign, the core voter base is being appealed to at this party conference with the help of today’s new poll.

But this doesn’t mean that dissent on the sidelines will disappear: a new pressure group is set to launch at the party conference this week – and wants Swinney to commit to five pledges to achieve independence. The First Minister may think his party is starting to shift the dial – but not all of his grassroots party members are convinced.