Super El Niño could push temperatures above 41°C next year, says MetMalaysia

The Super El Niño phenomenon could push Malaysia’s temperatures above 41 degrees Celsius between March and May next year, potentially breaking the national record of 40.1 degrees Celsius, the Meteorological Department has warned.

MetMalaysia director-general Hisham Anip said the projection was based on the current El Niño event, alongside the effects of climate change and global warming.

“If we look at current climate change trends...

The Super El Niño phenomenon could push Malaysia’s temperatures above 41 degrees Celsius between March and May next year, potentially breaking the national record of 40.1 degrees Celsius, the Meteorological Department has warned.

MetMalaysia director-general Hisham Anip said the projection was based on the current El Niño event, alongside the effects of climate change and global warming.

“If we look at current climate change trends, the rate of temperature increase in the country is approximately 0.13 degrees Celsius per decade.

“It has been nearly 30 years since 1998, when combined with the temperature spikes associated with El Niño, the increase could exceed one degree Celsius above the 40.1-degree record set back then. We anticipate that temperatures reaching 41 degrees Celsius or higher are likely to occur. That is our projection,” he said.

He was speaking at a press conference after the National Climate Forum 2026 at Universiti Teknologi Malaysia (UTM) in Johor Bahru today. Themed “Preparedness Today, Resilience Tomorrow”, the forum drew more than 500 participants from government departments and ministries.

Malaysia recorded its highest temperature of 40.1 degrees Celsius in Chuping, Perlis, on April 9, 1998, during the 1997/1998 El Niño episode. The peak during the 2015/2016 episode was 39.3 degrees Celsius, recorded in Batu Embun, Pahang, on April 10, 2016.

Hisham said the current El Niño is projected to exceed an index of 2.5, surpassing the peak of 2.3 recorded during the 1997/1998 and 2015/2016 episodes.

During strong El Niño events, daily maximum temperatures can rise by up to 0.7 degrees Celsius above normal, while temperatures above 35 degrees Celsius are expected across wider areas and for longer periods, he added.

Dry spell and aircond usage

Hisham warned that dry spells lasting up to 77 consecutive days, as recorded previously, could recur, particularly in the northern states of Peninsular Malaysia.

“Previous records show that this condition can begin at the end of the year, with a lack of rainfall starting in December and continuing through January and February, before rain returns around March,” he said.

Against this backdrop, he stressed the importance of the 2026/2027 Northeast Monsoon, forecast to begin in late October, in replenishing dams and boosting water reserves before drier conditions set in next year.

“We must ensure all our dams are full before next year begins. In terms of water sources, the Northeast Monsoon brings significant rainfall, and we hope this rain will fill all the dams,” he said.

He said the preparations were in line with a directive from Deputy Prime Minister Ahmad Zahid Hamidi to ensure adequate water supplies and storage ahead of next year’s anticipated hot and dry spell.

Hisham also expressed concern over a potential surge in electricity consumption during the hot months, particularly as more people turn to air conditioning.

“Energy consumption will be high during the hot months next year. Therefore, regarding the energy grid, we must ensure there is sufficient capacity. A lack of preparedness could lead to disruptions and compromise the grid,” he said.

He added that MetMalaysia had informed the relevant agencies of the forecast, which would be discussed at the Disaster Management Council meeting chaired by Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim next week.

Meanwhile, MetMalaysia is working with the Health Ministry to develop a Heat Index with thresholds to warn the public of health risks associated with hot weather.

Under the existing monitoring system, temperatures of 35 degrees Celsius and above are classified as Level 1, 37 degrees Celsius and above as Level 2, and 40 degrees Celsius and above as Level 3.

- Bernama