UFC 333 predictions

One way or another, history will be made at UFC 333. Maybe more than once.

First, you have Alexander Volkanovski, facing the classic combat sports conundrum of getting older while the competitions only gets younger and hungrier. “The Great” has done it all in his career and has nothing left to prove—other than maybe that he belongs to be placed even higher on the all-time great list than he already is.

He couldn’t ask for a more compelling challenge than Movsar Evloev. The undefeated Evloev has battled inactivity and a lack of fan-friendly highlights to earn his shot, going 10-0 in the UFC and bumping every other contender out of his way. Inside the distance or on the cards, winning’s winning, as a wise man once said.

Then there’s Petr Yan, once hanging on to the edge of the title picture by a thread, now back where he belongs in the greatest bantamweight of all time discussion. All he had to do was defeat three ranked opponents and then deliver the performance of his life this past December to avenge a past loss and become champion a second time.

The man he beat, Merab Dvalishvili, can restore order and cement himself as the 135-pound GOAT if he wins his series with Yan. Dvalishvili might have flown too close to the sun in 2025, attempting to become the first UFC fighter to successfully defend a title four times in a calendar year; now, with 10 months to rest, recover, and evolve, can he get back to his overwhelming ways and go on another dominant run?

Elsewhere on a stacked main card, Lone’er Kavanagh and Ramazan Temirov jockey for position in an increasingly crowded flyweight division, Alexander Volkov looks to keep his heavyweight title hopes alive when he takes on Rizvan Kuniev, and Aaron Pico faces short-notice replacement Losene Keita in a sizzling featherweight opener.

What: UFC 333

Where: Etihad Arena in Abu Dhabi

When: Saturday, Oct. 24. The five-fight early preliminary card begins at 10 a.m. ET, followed by a four-fight preliminary card at 12 p.m. ET. The five-fight main card begins at 2 p.m. ET with the entire event streaming live on Paramount+.

(Numbers in parentheses indicate standing in the MMA Fighting Global Rankings and Pound-for-Pound Rankings)

Alexander Volkanovski (1, P4P-5) vs. Movsar Evloev (2, P4P-19)

For the first time in a while, I can say with confidence that Alexander Volkanovski’s time is up.

All credit to Volkanovski for silencing the doubters time and time again, and for never wavering from wanting to give Movsar Evloev an opportunity. It’s hardly an unwinnable fight for the venerated Volkanovski, as his all-around game remains as sharp as ever, plus he’s survived the wrestling of Islam Makhachev and lived to tell about it. Keep it on the feet, box Evloev up, and live to fight another day as champion.

Making the case for Evloev, I want to shut down the notion that his lack of finishes somehow makes him less of a championship threat. Look at his most recent wins: Lerone Murphy, Aljamain Sterling, Arnold Allen, Diego Lopes, Dan Ige, heck, throw Hakeem Dawodu in there. Which of those fighters is easy to finish? Those are some of the toughest outs at 145 pounds, so yes, while we’d love to have seen Evloev put a stamp on his No. 1 contender status by emphatically putting one of those names away, it’s not essential.

As far as Evloev’s skills go, obviously his clearest path to victory involves grounding Volkanovski, smothering him against the fence, just wearing the older fighter down for 25 minutes. That said, and I could be fooling myself, I think Evloev actually finds his first finish here. Volkanovski gets hit. Lopes caught him. Makhachev and Ilia Topuria knocked him out. When Evloev throws, he has some pop to his punches, and all it takes is one good one to rattle Volkanovski’s chin these days.

So yes, I’m counting out Volkanovski. Again. And I’m ready to look dumb. Again. Give me a fresh face at the top, though, and Volkanovski moving one step closer to a well-deserved retirement.

Evloev by knockout.

Pick: Evloev

Petr Yan (1, P4P-2) vs. Merab Dvalishvili (2, P4P-10)

I hate to take away from Petr Yan’s amazing performance in their rematch, but did we really see the best version of Merab Dvalishvili that night?

Look, I’m a man of science—and Xyience, obviously—and I can say with 90 percent confidence that cutting weight and preparing for four title fights in 12 months can’t possibly be good for you, even if you have Dvalishvili’s freakish physical and mental conditioning. Then you remember the fourth was against Yan, a guy who might just be the best ever at 135 pounds who already had three rounds of data to work with. Trouble.

Yan denied Dvalishvili at every turn in their second fight, never letting Dvalishvili reach that extra gear that has broken so many challengers. Unsurprisingly, Yan got the better of the majority of the striking exchanges, showing once again that he is pound-for-pound one of the best strikers in all of MMA. I don’t see a scenario where Dvalishvili wins on the feet, even as much as his standup skills have improved.

Where Dvalishvili excels is in relentlessly mixing up his techniques and, yes, frustrating his opponents with his wrestling whether it’s against the fence or on the ground. His main goal is to give his opponents zero room to breathe, much less think. That’s how he beat Yan the first time and it’s a strategy that is repeatable, albeit with a few tweaks.

At their very best, I lean slightly towards Dvalishvili, but not for a second do I think either fighter will have a comfortable lead on the cards this time around. We could even take a trip to Splitty City. I hope not, but I do suspect we’ll be treated to a close decision—one that possibly sets up a fourth encounter down the road.

Pick: Dvalishvili

Lone’er Kavanagh (8) vs. Ramazan Temirov (12)

Speed vs. power? That’s how Lone’er Kavanagh sees it and who am I to disagree?

The 27-year-old Kavanagh has been swimming with the sharks since his third UFC fight, when he received a rude awakening from Mr. Spoiler himself, Charles Johnson. He followed that up with a career-best performance against two-time flyweight champion Brandon Moreno and then had to tap out in the third round of a gritty battle with another elite veteran, Brandon Royval. Ramazan Temirov is closer to Kavanagh in terms of octagon experience, but arguably just as dangerous as those other standouts.

Outside of Manel Kape, Temirov might be the scariest hitter at 125 pounds. He’s blessed with one-shot knockout power and he’ll be looking land a hammer before Kavanagh can establish any sort of rhythm. I believe Kavanagh has learned a ton from his past three fights though, even if it’s only that there are levels to this. Now it’s his turn to impart a version of that lesson on Temirov.

Watch for Kavanagh to stick and move for three rounds, mix the martial arts, and outlast Temirov en route to another impressive decision win.

Pick: Kavanagh

Alexander Volkov (4) vs. Rizvan Kuniev (9)

I’ll be honest, I didn’t have Alexander Volkov becoming The People’s Champ on my bingo card. But here we are, as much of the community has rallied around Volkov being robbed of a heavyweight title shot after years of battling top 10 opponents.

Rizvan Kuniev is the scariest kind of up-and-coming heavyweight in that he actually does stuff. That might sound like the faintest of praise, but in this division, being busy and pushing the pace immediately separates you from the pack. Ciryl Gane, Josh Hokit, and Gable Steveson are the names that spring to the mind of most fans when talking about athletic heavys, but I feel like Kuniev is flying under the radar in these discussions. He’s always coming forward and looking to engage and he has the cardio to drown Volkov with volume for 15 minutes.

Maybe I just need to see more of Big Riz, but I still think Volkov has the edge in striking and grappling. He’s one of the few giants we’ve seen in MMA that actually knows how to utilize his reach advantage (he’s not amazing at it, but better than Stefan Struve, to put it nicely), and that length should keep Kuniev from just walking him down with no repercussions. Taking Kuniev down is unlikely, but should the fight go to the ground, the more experienced Volkov can give Kuniev some problems.

Full disclosure, this is as much of a hope pick as anything else, because it would be a damn shame if Volkov never received his UFC title shot. I fully expect Kuniev to be a contender for years to come, so let tonight be Volkov’s night as he comes out on the right end of a hard-fought decision.

Pick: Volkov

Aaron Pico (12) vs. Losene Keita

I’ll say it: I don’t believe in the more measured, more mature Aaron Pico. Even though he put together a fine three-round performance against Patricio Pitbull, the berserker is still in there. And Losene Keita is the kind of opponent who can bring it out.

If I’m wrong about this, then I’ll be thrilled, because we need more fighters like Pico and if he’s learned to consistently channel his aggression and prodigious talents into a complete approach to the game, even better. What worries me here is that he’s arguably landed himself in an even more dangerous situation with Keita stepping in to replace an injured Arnold Allen, who was the perfect opponent to move Pico up the rankings and give him a few more high-level rounds. Keita is more willing to risk it all to make a statement.

Call this a coin flip, but I’ve seen Pico go full desperado too many times to trust him, especially against a guy who’s only loss inside the distance was due to a freak leg injury. Keita strikes first, gets the knockout, and takes home another $100,000 bonus.

Pick: Keita

Preliminaries

Azamat Murzakanov (9) def. Dominick Reyes (11)

Abdul Rakhman Yakhyaev def. Nikita Krylov

Cam Rowston def. Abus Magomedov

Nurullo Aliev def. Grant Dawson

Asaf Chopurov def. Colby Thicknesse

Abubakar Vagaev def. Jacob Malkoun

Daniel Santos def. Bolaji Oki

Kody Steele def. Noah Gugnon

Iasmin Lucindo (11) def. Nicolle Caliari