“You don’t have the cards,” President Donald Trump angrily told Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy during their infamous February 2025 Oval Office meeting. Trump issued this assessment just days after he had launched his effort to mediate an end to the Russia-Ukraine War. Some 19 months later, the cards have been shuffled and redealt.
But does Trump know how to play cards? Apparently not.
In a Sept. 21 phone call, Trump asked Zelenskyy to stop attacking Russian oil refineries. With the midterm elections in the United States now less than a month away, the average price of diesel in America stands at more than $6.00 per gallon, which affects constituencies important to the Republican party, such as farmers. That bothers Trump, who has publicly sought to blame Ukraine, not his war of choice against Iran, for the sharp spike in U.S. diesel prices in recent months.
Zelenskyy told Trump last month in New York that Ukraine would agree with Russia to a mutual ceasefire on attacks on energy infrastructure. But the Russians did not agree; indeed, it is unclear if Trump even asked them to do so. Understandably, Zelenskyy has ignored Trump’s pleas for what would be a unilateral halt. The Ukrainians continue to pummel Russian oil refineries and have disabled a substantial percentage of Russia’s capability to refine oil – whether it’s the 51 percent that Ukraine estimates is unknown, but the International Energy Agency says diesel production has dropped 30 percent.
The fact is, when it comes to dealing with Ukraine today, Trump holds a far weaker hand than he held in early 2025. At the start of his second term, Kyiv could hope that the United States might continue to provide some military or financial assistance and that a mediation effort fully backed by Trump could produce a ceasefire or maybe even a settlement between Russia and Ukraine.
Zeroing Out U.S. Aid to Ukraine
But Trump has terminated virtually all U.S. assistance to Ukraine, with the exception of a relatively small amount legislated by Congress. In doing so, he gave up some very high-value cards. Zelenskyy almost certainly would have paid greater heed to Trump’s request to leave Russian oil refineries alone had the United States continued to provide the level of assistance that the Biden administration supplied in 2022-2024 ($30-$40 billion a year) or even a significant portion thereof. (The few American weapons that Ukraine has received in the past year are mostly purchased by European countries who’ve stepped up their military aid.)
Trump’s Oct. 9 announcement that the United States will buy diesel fuel from Russia further weakens his hand with Zelenskyy. With U.S. dollars soon to flow to Moscow, where they will fuel the Russian war machine, the Ukrainians have even less incentive to lay off the refineries. Bipartisan opposition to Trump’s plan has emerged on Capitol Hill, but with Congress out of session, it is unclear how quickly Congress could act.
Likewise, whatever cards Trump’s prospective mediation effort might have given him with Zelenskyy in early 2025, the hand now looks like a bust. Lead U.S. mediator Steve Witkoff leans heavily toward the Russian side – he’s visited Moscow at least nine times, Kyiv once – but has failed to move Moscow in any substantive way. Indeed, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov recently said that Russia’s negotiating demands had not changed since 2024. Trump’s agreement to purchase diesel from Russia undercuts his negotiators’ leverage, as it has the perverse effect of reducing, not increasing, pressure on the Kremlin to negotiate seriously. Why should Ukraine place any faith in such a failed process?
Cards to Play with Putin
While Trump holds a weak hand with Zelenskyy, he has long had significant cards to play with Russian President Vladimir Putin to press Russia to end the fighting. Trump could urge Elon Musk to allow Ukraine to use Starlink to target military sites in Russia; close loopholes that allow U.S. and other Western technology to seep into Russia (where it often ends up in Russian missiles and drones); work with the European Union to seize frozen Russian Central Bank assets and turn them over to Ukraine; or ask Congress for a significant amount of assistance for Kyiv, something Congress would almost certainly approve if Trump requested it.
Over the past 19 months, Trump has done none of this. He holds strong cards that could push the Kremlin to reconsider its position and negotiate in a serious way, but he has chosen not to play them. That gives Putin no incentive to change course.
Congressional passage of the Lindsay Graham Sanctions Bill bolstered Trump’s hand with some powerful new aces and kings. The Russian government depends heavily on revenues generated from exports of oil and gas to finance its war effort. The Graham bill, which Trump signed into law on Sept. 18, allows the president to impose substantial tariffs on third countries that purchase large amounts of Russian oil and gas.
But Trump seems more inclined to throw all that away. How can he impose tariffs on third countries that buy Russian energy when he has just struck a deal for the United States to do precisely that?
Trump has steadily weakened his hand and influence with Zelenskyy, while his strong cards with Putin will only work if he uses them. Sadly, he appears not to know how to play the game.
FEATURED IMAGE: In this pool photograph distributed by the Russian state agency Sputnik, Russia's President Vladimir Putin (R) welcomes US special envoy Steve Witkoff (L) prior to their talks in Moscow on September 5, 2026. Putin met with Witkoff and fellow envoy Jared Kushner for talks on ending more than four years of war in Ukraine. "The situation is of course not simple," Putin told the US officials in footage aired on Russian state media. (Photo by Gavriil GRIGOROV / POOL / AFP via Getty Images)