There is just one Formula 1 team left to confirm its driver line-up for the 2027 season - Racing Bulls.
Technically speaking, there is still an opening at Haas too, but it is only a matter of time before Ollie Bearman is formally confirmed alongside new signing Rafael Camara.
Stability has largely been the buzzword in the F1 paddock when it comes to the 2027 grid and driver market, which has been unusually stable. Top teams and drivers have opted for contract extensions and continuity, rather than overhauls.
But there is an interesting situation developing at Racing Bulls, where both seats remain open for next season as it stands.
Lawson has scored 61 points for Racing Bulls this season
It is a classic case of three-doesn’t-fit-into-two at Racing Bulls, with current drivers Liam Lawson and Arvid Lindblad are in the frame along with Red Bull junior Nikola Tsolov.
“I don't want to give you a definite date. It's going to be in the coming weeks, let's say,” Racing Bulls team principal Alan Permane said at the Singapore Grand Prix when asked when a decision will be made.
“I mean, we're in no rush. I think everyone knows we've got two fantastic drivers. We've got a fantastic driver in F2 at the moment, and they're all there and ready to go.
“But three doesn't fit into two, of course, and we're just going to take a little bit more time and make sure we get the right pairing for next year.”
What’s the hold-up?
The final decision will ultimately be taken by Red Bull shareholders, Chalerm Yoovidhya and Mark Mateschitz, along with Red Bull CEO Oliver Mintzlaff, who is in charge of the F1 programme.
This is because while running as an independent team, both of Racing Bulls’ drivers, and Tsolov, are ultimately contracted to Red Bull.
The decision is not an easy one for Red Bull because it has three drivers all doing a very impressive job this season.
Lawson has led Racing Bulls’ charge this season and has been one of the standout performers in the midfield pack, scoring 75 points (14 of which came during his three-race substitute stint at Red Bull) to sit ninth in the drivers’ standings.
The Kiwi’s mighty haul is a big part of the reason why Red Bull sits in a fairly comfortable fifth place in the constructors’ championship.
Lindblad has impressed in his rookie F1 season
Lindblad, meanwhile, is having a strong rookie F1 season, demonstrating the kind of raw pace and potential that got him the seat in the first place. 38 points in 17 races is a good return for the 19-year-old Briton, who has been remarkably consistent since Monaco, only failing to finish in the top-10 twice. He appears best-placed to stay on in 2027.
At the same time, Red Bull has the highly-rated Tsolov waiting in the wings for an opportunity to become the first Bulgarian to race in F1. The 19-year-old is in with a real shot of winning the Formula 2 title in his first full-season in the series.
Tsolov, who has a total of six wins in F2 this campaign, sits second in the championship and is just seven points behind Camara heading into the final two rounds in Qatar and Abu Dhabi.
There is a high chance a final decision will not be made until after the season concludes, which would align with Permane’s refusal to put a timeframe on the situation and his stance that the team is “in no rush”.
What will the decision come down to?
Fundamentally, the decision will largely be led by performance, with outright pace coming towards the very top of the list. But there are other factors for Red Bull to consider when making the call.
“There's many, many, many things. I guess top of the list is speed and pace and all that goes with that,” Permane explained.
“But there's lots, of course, in the background because we're in a slightly unique situation, I guess.
“We want to bring on young drivers, we want to bring on young talent, and of course we have one eye on them progressing in the future. So, it's not just about the here and now, it's also about what they can do in the future.”
Tsolov has emerged as an F2 title contender this year
As Permane highlights, Red Bull finds itself in a unique position, which only makes the 2027 conundrum more difficult.
On one hand, there is little reason to change anything. Keeping the current status quo will ensure consistency and enable Lindblad to continue to develop alongside a safe pair of hands in Lawson, who can be counted on to bring home the majority of the points for Racing Bulls.
It is not like Lawson is old, either. The Kiwi is still only 24, however, there is a feeling that he has had his chance with Red Bull and is now effectively serving as a yardstick for judging potential Red Bull stars of the future while ever he remains at Racing Bulls.
There is also an argument that Red Bull has no reason to rush through its junior drivers, given that Isack Hadjar has fitted in well alongside Max Verstappen and has seemingly broken the ‘second seat curse’, earning himself an extension for 2027.
Verstappen will no doubt continue to have interested suitors but he is locked down until at least 2030 and happy at Red Bull. For the time being, all is calm and settled.
Promoting another rookie does not come without risk and presents an unknown factor. A Lindblad-Tsolov pairing would leave Racing Bulls fielding the most inexperienced driver line-up on the grid by some margin, and that may have adverse repercussions for its championship prospects in 2027.
But Red Bull won’t want to block Tsolov’s path to F1, particularly if he goes on to win the F2 title and is therefore ruled out of returning to the championship in 2027. If Tsolov finishes second, staying put in F2 for another campaign would make sense and somewhat spare Red Bull of a potential headache.
For the first time in 20 years, the famously ruthless Helmut Marko will not be calling the shots. It will be fascinating to see what approach Red Bull takes under its new, less volatile management.
Lewis regularly attends Grands Prix for Crash.net around the world. Often reporting on the action from the ground, Lewis tells the stories of the people who matter in the sport.