Strategy shares lost 9.6% on Friday in the first full session after MSCI’s index ruling, even though the company’s 848,250 bitcoin still sit about $5 billion above cost.
Key Takeaways
- Strategy (MSTR) closed at $136.83 on Oct. 16, down 9.56% after MSCI’s non-operating company ruling.
- Strategy’s 848,250 BTC, bought at a $75,444 average, show about a $5.08B paper gain at $81,434.
- MSCI publishes its final deletion list on Nov. 11, with changes taking effect after the Nov. 30 close.
The Breakdown
MSCI announced on Oct. 15, after U.S. markets closed, that companies which mainly hold assets rather than run a business will lose index eligibility. Friday was the first full trading day to digest it and here’s how the Saylor-adjacent board closed:
- Strategy (MSTR): $151.29 to $136.83, down 9.56%.
- Stretch (STRC): $99.53 to $97.72, its lowest close since Sept. 16.
- Strike (STRK): $73.85 to $71.24, down 3.5%.
- Strive (ASST): $25.65 to $24.09, down 6.1%.
- Metaplanet (3350.T): $1.68 (¥265) to $1.77 (¥277), up 4.5%.
Trading volume backed the move as some 31.8 million MSTR shares changed hands, which market analysts put at 1.44x its normal level.
The $5 Billion Cushion
The selloff hit the equity, not the stash, and Strategy’s latest SEC filing shows 848,250 BTC as of Oct. 11, bought for $64 billion at an average of $75,444 per coin. With bitcoin’s price near $81,434 as of today, that stack is worth about $69.1 billion, a paper gain of roughly $5.08 billion, or about 7.9% on cost.
The preferred shares saga is a different story, as STRC had been flirting with its $100 par value all month, and Bitcoin.com News reported on Oct. 13 that it nearly hit $100 after Strategy bought back $192.4 million of it. Friday’s dip erased much of that progress, even though one analyst pointed out that Strategy holds about 3.5 years of dividend coverage in its U.S. dollar reserve.
Was It Really MSCI?
That answer isn’t entirely accurate, since bitcoin miners fell just as hard without any index threat hanging over them. MARA Holdings dropped from $8.33 to $7.53, also down 9.6%, while Riot Platforms slid 11.5% to $13.72. Even Coinbase, which has nothing to fear from MSCI’s screen, dropped 5.8%. The Nasdaq Composite fell 2.1% to 26,140 as chip stocks extended their slide.
In other words, the MSCI headline met a market already in risk-off mode, and high-beta bitcoin equities took the worst of it.
That said, even though Metaplanet was flagged alongside Strategy in MSCI’s simulation (which used May 2026 data), its shares rose 4.5% in the session right after the announcement. As Bitcoin.com News reported on Thursday, existing members generally have to fail MSCI’s screen in two consecutive annual reviews before removal, which may explain why Japanese traders shrugged. Sharplink, meanwhile, landed on a watchlist rather than the deletion list.
The Three Dates Now on Saylor’s Calendar
- Nov. 11: MSCI publishes the final list of affected constituents. JPMorgan has estimated Strategy could face about $2.8 billion in passive outflows if it is removed.
- November: Strategy plans to start paying STRC dividends daily, a feature built to pull the preferred back toward par.
- Nov. 30: The new MSCI rules apply after the close, with deletions taking effect at the November index review.
Until then, Strategy remains a company sitting on a $5 billion bitcoin profit that the stock market is treating like a $64 billion question mark. Interesting few weeks ahead!