Why the US can’t cut India off from Russian crude

The limited supplies and high costs of Venezuelan oil will keep energy flowing from Russia to its traditional friend India, analysts say

India will not cut off Russian crude supplies even if the current US push for it to take in more Venezuelan oil to cool global fuel prices masks the larger goal of weakening New Delhi’s energy ties with Moscow.

US Secretary of State Marco Rubio said in Mumbai on Tuesday that India diversifying its energy supplies is a “smart thing to do.”
 
Some analysts see a hidden geopolitical and economic goal behind those words and Rubio’s push for Indian conglomerate Reliance to buy and refine more Venezuelan oil.

“A key US goal is to weaken the Indo-Russian relationship by steering India farther away from Russian crude,” geopolitical analyst Brahma Chellaney posted on X on Thursday.

“Washington’s underlying diplomatic objective is to get India to substitute Russian oil with US crude and US-controlled Venezuelan oil.”
 
Washington imposed an additional 25% tariff on Indian goods in August 2025 to pressure New Delhi over its Russian oil purchases, arguing that Moscow’s energy revenues were helping finance its military in the Ukraine conflict. The penalty was withdrawn in February this year.

Last week, US President Donald Trump also waived separate sanctions and steep tariffs targeting major buyers of Russian energy under a recently passed law, citing ongoing US efforts to negotiate an end to the Ukraine conflict.

During his Indian tour, Rubio sought to get India to buy more U.S. energy as well as more oil from Venezuela, whose export revenues are directly deposited into an account controlled by the U.S. Treasury, with Washington determining when, how much and for what purposes the funds are released. Rubio wants the world’s largest oil-refining complex in Jamnagar to process more Venezuelan crude. Washington appears not to be content with India’s rapid emergence since May as a top global buyer of U.S.-sourced and U.S.-controlled energy supplies. The U.S. has already become India’s largest supplier of both liquefied natural gas (LNG) and liquefied petroleum gas (LPG). At Washington’s urging, India has also become the largest destination for Venezuelan oil exports. A key U.S. goal is to weaken the Indo-Russian relationship by steering India farther away from Russian crude. While Rubio framed India’s efforts to diversify its energy portfolio as a “smart thing to do,” Washington’s underlying diplomatic objective is to get India to substitute Russian oil with U.S. crude and U.S.-controlled Venezuelan oil.

— Dr. Brahma Chellaney (@Chellaney) October 21, 2026

“What America is trying to do is gain greater control over the international oil market,” Jindal School of International Affairs adjunct professor and former Jawaharlal Nehru University professor, Anuradha Mitra Chenoy, told RT.

“India will continue purchasing Russian oil,” she added.

Russia remains India’s largest oil supplier amid global energy disruptions. Russian crude made up more than half of India’s oil purchases in July, although the share fell to 33.5% in September as Middle Eastern supplies recovered and competition from China intensified, Reuters reported.

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The scale of available supplies in the global market makes replacing Russian oil difficult, especially for a country such as India, Chenoy explained. The world’s most populous nation imports more than 85% of its energy.

“Venezuela alone cannot provide all the alternatives,” Chenoy said. “There are only a limited number of major sources available internationally, and Russia remains one of the most important suppliers.”

Venezuela produced approximately 1.16 million barrels per day of crude in September, compared with Russia’s 8.43 million, according to the International Energy Agency (IEA). India’s Russian imports alone exceeded Venezuela’s entire output that month.

India, looking to widen its crude basket amid the global uncertainty, has already expanded Venezuelan purchases substantially. New Delhi’s Venezuelan imports surged from $255 million in all of FY2026 ended March, to $3.6 billion in the April-August period this year, data shared by the Global Trade Research Initiative (GTRI) think tank showed.

India is a fast-growing major economy and one of the few bright spots amid the macroeconomic headwinds blowing across the world. The IMF forecasts it to grow at 7% this year and next.

Sustaining that growth depends heavily on the availability and affordability of energy, Chenoy pointed out. “India cannot simply abandon Russian oil because Washington wants it to.”

Why Venezuelan oil cannot easily replace Russian crude

Venezuela’s Merey grade is being offered at around $25 per barrel below benchmark Brent, but that cost advantage disappears when the $35-a-barrel freight to India’s west coast is added in, energy analyst Natalia Katona told the Indian Express.

The discounts on Russian crude have also narrowed and freight costs risen, making its delivered price comparable to some Middle Eastern grades, particularly Iraqi oil, reports said.

Still, it would be tough for Venezuelan oil to compete with Russian crude, let alone replace it for Indian buyers, because of the limited production, higher cost, and specialized equipment needed to refine the heavy grade

Reliance’s Jamnagar complex, which can process around 1.4 million barrels daily, is among the refineries equipped to handle the Venezuelan grade.

From the American perspective, Merey has one advantage that likely prompted Rubio to rush to India amid higher fuel prices back home: it can produce a higher volume of diesel.

However, that is not a great reason for India to replace Russian crude with Merey.

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The sanctions that were levied on Venezuela by Washington – before US forces kidnapped Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro in January – had forced India to stop buying oil from the South American country and froze billions of dollars in Indian investments in oil fields there.

“India must consider whether another shift in US policy could again put its investments and earnings at risk,” said GTRI founder Ajay Srivastava.

The time-tested and deep friendship between India and Russia must also be considered.

Chenoy pointed out that there is a broad consensus across Indian society and politics about the friendship with Russia. “India’s relationship with Russia has been among its most stable international relationships for decades,” she said.

Any designs the US has on India-Russia ties are bound to fail because of that one reason alone.