Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro leads his opponent, state treasurer Stacy Garrity, by 23 points among likely voters in a recent poll that showcases the Jewish Democratic incumbent’s advantages if he seeks the Democratic presidential nomination in 2028.
Shapiro leads Garrity, a Republican, 59% to 36% in the latest Franklin & Marshall College poll of the most populous swing state and a must-win for any Democrat hoping to take the White House.
Pennsylvanians’ dissatisfaction with the economy could benefit Shapiro. Economic concerns reportedly helped drive voters away from Joe Biden in 2020 and toward Donald Trump in 2024. Trump’s job approval rating fell to 29% in the latest poll, down from 41% in October 2025.
More than half of Pennsylvanian voters, 58%, said they are worse off economically now than a year ago, and 59% said that Trump’s policies hurt them, compared with 37% who said they have helped.
“Pennsylvania voters rate the economy as the biggest issue, and they overwhelmingly believe that Democrats will do a better job than Republicans on that issue,” said Berwood Yost, director of the poll. “That’s the same issue that mattered in 2024, when people thought that Trump would be able to do better. That’s largely why he was able to win re-election.”
Republicans have rallied behind Garrity, but she has struggled to raise money or close the gap with Shapiro ahead of the 2026 midterm elections.
Shapiro has raised $55 million. Garrity brought in less than one-tenth of that amount, $5.3 million.
In the poll, 44% of Republicans said they didn’t know enough about Garrity to express a favorable or unfavorable opinion of her. Among Democrats asked the same question, 38% said they didn’t know enough about her.
“That’s even more telling, I think, than the horse race stuff, where more Democrats recognize her than Republicans,” Yost told JNS.
“That’s because Josh Shapiro has advertised about his opponent, and they’ve paid attention to that,” he said. “She’s just not known. She hasn’t raised any money. I think those are the most telling numbers in the whole survey for that race.”
Shapiro is using his financial advantage to help Democrats unseat Republican members of Congress, take control of the state Senate and retain their majority in the state House.
“The more of those he can accumulate, the stronger his case for being a presidential candidate,” Yost told JNS. “You’ve got to win Pennsylvania to win the presidency. Presumably, if you can win Pennsylvania, you can win Wisconsin and Michigan as well.”
“I still think he has an uphill fight within the Democratic Party,” he said.
In an era of rising antisemitism and declining support for Israel among some Democrats, Shapiro has been outspoken about his Jewish faith and support for Israel’s right to exist and defend itself. He condemned Hamas for its Oct. 7 attack.
He has criticized some anti-Israel protests on college campuses and objected to questions about Israel posed during his vetting as a potential running mate for Kamala Harris in 2024.
At the same time, Shapiro has criticized Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, continued to endorse a two-state solution, called for more humanitarian aid to Gaza and opposed Trump’s decision to go to war with Iran.
“The people of Israel in another couple of weeks will determine who their leader should be,” Shapiro said earlier this month during a debate with Garrity. “I hope it’s not Benjamin Netanyahu.”
Yost said that the anti-Israel feelings among the left wing of the Democratic Party could be an issue as they are the voters most likely to show up in primary elections.
“All you have to do is look at the reaction to his being considered by Kamala Harris for running mate, and there are factions in that party that are going to fight, that he’s just not going to be acceptable to,” Yost told JNS. “We’ll have to see what faction wins out.”
Guy Ziv, a professor at American University and associate director of its Center for Israel Studies, told JNS that it is too early to know whether Shapiro’s Jewish faith and support for Israel could hurt him in a presidential bid.
“We do not yet know whether or not this is going to turn out to be a liability or a nothing-burger,” Ziv said. “I think that part of it will depend on kind of how he handles himself, but so far, notwithstanding his public support for Israel and his openness regarding his religion, his Jewish faith, he is extremely popular in Pennsylvania.”
He added, however, that it is unclear “how it will play out on the national scene.”
“We don’t know whether or not he is actually planning on running for president,” Ziv told JNS. “We don’t know what the national mood will be if and when he does run, but yeah, it is a potential vulnerability.” (JNS sought comment from Shapiro’s campaign.)
One potential strength is Shapiro’s standing among white voters without college degrees, a working-class demographic that has helped elect Trump twice. Shapiro had a 39% job approval rating among those voters, compared with 36% for Trump.
Shapiro’s efforts to open more state jobs to people without college degrees and expand training for skilled workers, including electricians and plumbers, have helped him with that demographic, Yost said.
Another potential strength is the pool of voters who skipped the 2024 election but say they plan to vote in 2026. They account for 13% of likely voters this fall, and most support Democrats, according to the poll.
“Winning elections in a state like this is about coalition building,” Yost said. “It certainly would bode well for him if you can do that.”
Shapiro’s ability to help elect Democrats up and down the ballot in November could also bolster his presidential prospects, he said.
“Has he helped flip those congressional seats? Has he helped take the state House? Has he flipped the Senate?” Yost told JNS. “The more of those he can accumulate, the stronger his case for being a presidential candidate.”
The poll of 808 registered voters was conducted Oct. 7-18 and had a margin of error of plus or minus 4.1 percentage points. A subset of 433 likely voters had a margin of error of 5.6 percentage points.