Importantly, underlying investment demand for bullion remains strong, with inflows into gold-backed ETFs reaching a four-year high
Gold price prediction today: Gold prices are recovering, but are continuing to see pressure due to global factors, says Manav Modi, Senior Analyst, Commodity Research at Motilal Oswal Financial Services Ltd. Here’s his analysis:Gold enters the week Rs 150,750 after recovering from the recent decline towards Rs 146,000–147,000, although prices remain well below the September peak near Rs 163,000–165,000. The daily structure has improved modestly, with gold moving back above the 20-day average near Rs 150,263, suggesting that selling pressure is stabilising after the recent correction.Bollinger Bands show the upper band near Rs 155,047 and lower band around Rs 145,480, leaving prices close to the middle of the range.
From a broader perspective, repeated ability to hold the Rs 145,000-147,000 region keeps medium-term structure constructive despite recent volatility. Immediate support is placed around Rs 149,000–150,000, followed by the stronger Rs 145,500-147,000 zone.A sustained break below Rs 145,000 would weaken the broader setup and could expose Rs 140,000–142,000. On the upside, Rs 152,500-153,000 remains the first hurdle, followed by the upper Bollinger region around Rs 155,000.
A sustained move above Rs 155,000 could strengthen momentum and open the way towards Rs 158,000–160,000, followed by September high around Rs 163,000–165,000.Overall, near-term bias remains neutral to mildly positive, while the one-to-three-month structure continues to look constructive as long as Rs 145,000 holds. A breakout above Rs 155,000 would provide stronger confirmation that the recent corrective phase is ending and that the broader upward move is resuming.Gold ended the week higher and enters the new week with a constructive undertone as easing energy prices and strengthening investment demand offset pressure from elevated Treasury yields and expectations of further Federal Reserve tightening. Crude oil declined after the US and Iran reached an energy truce, helping moderate immediate concerns over another energy-driven inflation shock, although broader Middle East uncertainty continues to support safe-haven demand.More importantly, underlying investment demand for bullion remains strong, with inflows into gold-backed ETFs reaching a four-year high as investors increasingly focus on rising fiscal deficits, government debt-servicing costs and longer-term currency debasement risks.Central-bank accumulation also continues to provide structural support, with the People’s Bank of China adding around 740,000 ounces of gold during September, extending its buying streak to 23 consecutive months.
However, the monetary-policy backdrop remains a significant headwind.Persistent inflationary pressures have kept the possibility of additional Fed tightening alive, supporting nominal and real Treasury yields and increasing the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding bullion.Gold therefore remains caught between two powerful forces: elevated yields and tighter monetary-policy expectations limiting near-term upside, while ETF inflows, central-bank accumulation, fiscal concerns and geopolitical uncertainty support the broader bullish structure.For the week ahead, Treasury yields, Fed communication, crude oil and geopolitical developments are likely to determine whether gold can extend its recovery towards recent highs.(Disclaimer: Recommendations and views on the stock market, or any other asset classes or personal finance management tips given by experts and analysts are their own. These opinions do not represent the views of The Times of India.)