IMF sees global economy falling short of prewar growth trajectory

Photo: IMF official website

BAKU, Azerbaijan, October 15. In the medium term, the global economy will not return to the growth trajectory observed prior to the war in the Middle East, the Director of the Middle East and Central Asia Department at the International Monetary Fund, Jihad Azour, said during a briefing, Trend's correspondent reports.

“Undoubtedly, we are living in a world of high uncertainty, and, as we noted earlier this week, all risks are skewed toward a worsening of the situation.
Our forecast is based on the assumption that trade and shipping will return to normal in the first quarter of 2027, after which exports will gradually recover and normalize by about the middle of the year,” he said.

According to him, the IMF expects oil prices to remain above the level the organization projected in April, though they will gradually begin to decline over time.

“We also assume that countries with the capacity to rapidly increase production will take advantage of it. We were pleased to learn that even Qatar, whose gas production facilities suffered enormous damage, has been able to accelerate its recovery: it will now take a year and a half instead of the three years previously estimated,” he added.

Thus, as Azour noted, the IMF’s forecast is based on these assumptions, which explain the expected rapid recovery in 2027.

“At the same time, our forecast also notes that, in the medium term, the economy will not return to the growth trajectory observed before the war.

Over the past six months, we are convinced that, despite the severity of the shock, countries are capable of managing the associated risks and mitigating its ultimate impact on prices. This applies not only to exporting countries but also to importing countries. It is also noteworthy that the consequences of the crisis vary from country to country around the world, including among countries in the region itself,” he added.