The Hawkeyes hit the road Saturday with Floyd of Rosedale in tow. Iowa looks to return Saturday with the pig for the third straight year and the 9th time in the last 10 meetings.
Vegas seems to think that’s pretty likely. After opening as 4.5-point favorites, the line has climbed all the way to Iowa -7.5 as of Friday morning according to FanDuel Sportsbook. Despite the rising spread, the over/under has held pretty steady at 40.5 total points. That gives us an implied final score of Iowa 24, Minnesota 16.5.
Here at The Pants, we’re riding the high of that Washington performance and are even more optimistic than the sports books. Our consensus projection has Iowa winning 27.2-14.8. That has us very comfortably taking the Hawks giving the points, but has us just barely on the over.
As a quick reminder, two weeks ago we called for a final score of Iowa 21, Washington 20.5, taking the Hawks with the points and fully straddling the fence on the over/under. Since we didn’t take a side on the O/U, we went 1-0 with the Hawks hammering the Huskies. That improves us at 3-8 on the year. Let’s build some momentum on our picks this week, huh?
Here’s a look at our individual predictions for tomorrow’s matchup.
JPinIC
I really want to buy in on this offense and this team. I think the bye week allows Tim Lester to tighten some things up and ensure Iowa is ready to accelerate things for the back half of the year. But I also know just how much the psychopath to the north craves this win and like the Hawkeyes, the Gophers have spent two weeks prepping for this one.
I think Minnesota loads the box and dares whoever Iowa starts at QB to win the game. I think both Hecklinski and Brown are capable of doing that, but I worry we finally get bit by the turnover bug. And at the end of the day, being a near touchdown favorite on the road is pretty wild in a rivalry matchup. I think the Hawkeyes pull it out, but calling for a cover here is too optimistic for my taste.
Iowa 20, Minnesota 17
HWKTACO
Like Iowa, Minnesota is a run first offense. Unfortunately, four-star freshman Ryan Estrada suffered a season-ending knee injury during their opening game against Eastern Illinois. Then in the next game against Mississippi State, star running back Darius Taylor was injured, and he has never been the same since. If that weren’t enough, both of their centers had season ending injuries, causing them to shift the O Line assignments, and the run blocking has tanked.
They now rely heavily on the arm of 6-foot-5 Drake Lindsey, a pure pocket passer who is not a dual threat quarterback. The Gophers have given up 14 sacks on the season and, if Iowa shuts down the run, it could well be an active day for Iowa’s linebacker corps.
Iowa running back LJ Phillips said the ankle he tweaked in the Washington game is the same one he hurt previously but feels good following the bye week. Given he was injured in Iowa’s first game of the season, it would be wonderful to see him blossom during the second half of the season, and this would be a great game to get started. Break out the bacon, Floyd comes home with the Hawks.
Iowa 27, Minnesota 13
GlendaleHawk
Iowa went in to Seattle a 3.5-point road dog and came out with a 24-point win (yeah, I’m taking away their last second TD which mattered only to the WR that caught it – what with it being his 1st collegiate TD, against the backups). Minnesota gave up more than 300 yards rushing in its last outing to Purdue. Purdue may be on the way up, but their line is nowhere near as good as Iowa’s. I am sure that they will stuff the box, but then again so did the Huskies and we still ran the ball all the way down their throat.
And you know what, if they do stuff the box, fine. Whether it’s Hank or Heck (in alphabetical, not priority, order), I have a lot of faith in Tim Lester’s ability to scheme up a gameplan that can use this new fangled thing called the forward pass to open up the run game.
I also expect our defense to feast on “Drizzy” Drake Lindsay (blame Gus) both in the sack total and by snagging a couple picks. He may be completing 67% of his passes, but his TD/INT ratio is under 2, and I have no reason not to believe that Phil will dial up the pressure given that Goldie has zero ground game atm. Floyd comes back from his weekend jaunt to the Twin Cities and all is right with the world.
Iowa 31, Goldie 13
MattReisener
Can Jeremey Heckliski maintain his perfect record as a starting quarterback on the road? Minnesota poses a real challenge to Iowa’s passing game. The Gophers boast a top ten national passing defense and, despite having fewer sacks on the year than the Hawkeyes, (14 compared to Iowa’s 19), Minnesota nonetheless has an impressive pass rush that has done a good job getting pressure on opposing quarterbacks even when they don’t get the sack. Iowa’s offensive line has been excellent in pass protection this year, and they’ll need to have another strong game for Iowa to make much hay through the air.
Fortunately, Iowa may be able to move the ball on the ground even if the aerial attack falters. Minnesota has been gauged in the running game in both of their losses this season, allowing 252 rushing yards to Mississippi State and 305 against Purdue, including almost 100 yards and three touchdowns by Boilermaker back Fame Ijeboi alone. If Kamari Moulton can run with the intensity he showed in 208-yard performance against Washington, he could have another strong outing.
Minnesota’s running game has been surprisingly poor and is statistically comparable to those of Northern Illinois and Washington, who Iowa held to seven and negative three yards on the ground, respectively. The Gophers will probably look to attack Iowa through the air, where the Hawkeyes have shown real vulnerability in recent weeks. Whether Phil Parker managed to find any answers to help account for Tyler Brown’s ongoing injury and the continued struggles of any Iowa cornerbacks not named Deshaun Lee could determine whether the Hawkeyes win this one comfortably or find themselves in a tight contest down the stretch.
Iowa 24, Minnesota 17
Braeden Garrett
PJ Fleck is 1-8 against the Hawkeyes and as much as it must gnaw at him that he can’t quite figure out Iowa, it must give Kirk Ferentz so much joy kicking him in the gut year after year. Kirk’s like the big brother putting little Junior in his place in 1 on 1 and never letting him forget it.
The Gophers gave up over 300 yards on the ground against Purdue which should leave Kamari Moulton and the Iowa O-line salivating. Conversely, Minnesota’s running game is MIA, languishing at 130th in the country. It means the formula for an Iowa win fairly simple: take away the pass to make Minnesota try to win on the ground while pounding them into submission with your own rushing attack. Drake Lindsey is a good QB and is rated as a possible late 1st round pick by some, but if he is Minnesota’s only offense in this game I can’t see it ending well for them.
Kirk should be undefeated against PJ. But I’ll settle for 9-1.
Iowa 27, Minnesota 14
David Fidler
On paper, I love this matchup. Iowa is looking to prove that the dominant rushing game it demonstrated against Washington wasn’t a fluke. And Minnesota doesn’t have a good rush defense, so the Gophers are the team to prove it against.
On offense, Minnesota can’t run which barely matters because Iowa can stop good rushing teams; they certainly can shut down bad ones. Minnesota can pass, and Iowa hasn’t been great against the pass, but if Iowa makes them one-dimensional, which is likely, then the defense can pin its ears back.
So I love this matchup for Iowa, but I worry something will go wrong. But that’s life as a Hawkeye fan.
Iowa 34, Minnesota 15
So there you have it, the Hawks win, the pig comes home and we all feast on bacon for another year.
What say you, Hawkeye fans? Let’s hear those score predictions for Saturday’s showdown in Minneapolis!