The forecast is lower than those of other international organisations. The World Bank has projected growth of 3.4% for FY2026-27, while the Asian Development Bank has forecast 4%.
13 October, 2026, 09:35 am
Last modified: 13 October, 2026, 09:52 am
Bangladesh is heading for its weakest economic growth in nearly four decades in the current 2026-27 fiscal year, with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) projecting GDP growth of just 3.2%, lower than forecasts from both the World Bank and the Asian Development Bank.
The forecast is further clouded by the lender's projection that inflation will surge to 10.9%, according to its World Economic Outlook published today (13 October), pointing to another difficult year for an economy struggling to regain momentum.
The last time growth was this weak was in FY1988-89, when GDP expanded by 3.11%, according to Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics (BBS) data. Even during the Covid-19 pandemic, the economy grew 3.45% in FY2019-20.
The IMF's growth forecast for Bangladesh is also lower than those of other international lenders. The World Bank has projected growth of 3.4% for FY2026-27, while the Asian Development Bank (ADB) has forecast 4%.
In its April forecast, the IMF projected Bangladesh's growth at 4.3% for FY2026-27. The new projection is 1.1 percentage points lower. In July, the fund's forecast stood at 3.5%.
The IMF has also sharply raised its inflation forecast. In April, it projected average inflation of 6% for the current fiscal year. The new forecast raises that to 10.9%.
The lower growth outlook combined with higher expected inflation points to pressure on the country's macroeconomic situation.
According to IMF estimates, Bangladesh's economy grew 3.6% in FY2025-26. Growth in the previous fiscal year was 3.5%.
Meanwhile, the IMF also projected growth of 7% for India and 6.9% for Bhutan in FY27.
The new forecast comes during the annual meetings of the IMF and the World Bank in Bangkok. Bangladesh's economic situation, its reform programme and financing from development partners are among the issues receiving attention at the meetings.