In the build-up to England's World Cup opener, Brian McDermott was at pains to stress that there are no second chances at the highest level.
By that logic, their hopes are already over after this damaging defeat to Tonga.
England are still alive in theory but only one scenario can save them, barring an unlikely slip-up from one of their rivals.
In a format with no quarter-finals and a complicated structure involving the ever-improving Pacific nations, the margin for error is virtually non-existent.
England began the tournament in a fight with Tonga and Samoa for a semi-final place and are now banking on a favour.
They must wait until the final day of the group stage to see if Tonga can beat Samoa. In the meantime, England must defeat France and Papua New Guinea convincingly enough to ensure they outscore the Samoans.
Simply put, McDermott's team are on a wing and a prayer just one game into the tournament.
There were mitigating circumstances, of course, not least the extraordinary lack of preparation that preceded McDermott's first game in charge.
England had no warm-up matches, no training sessions and no time together as a group before assembling in Australia in the lead-up to the tournament opener.
Given the backdrop, the result should hardly have come as a surprise.
McDermott spoke in the build-up about giving England a clear point of difference and that was evident in a more adventurous approach than under Shaun Wane.
Ultimately, though, it came to nothing as England's familiar struggles to turn good ball into points continued.
Their game plan created opportunities but they were not clinical enough when it mattered.
Tonga, by contrast, defended bravely and took their chances to take a big step towards the semi-finals.
While they must also face Samoa in the toughest draw of all their rivals, the Tongans have a safety net in a group stage determined initially by head-to-head records. Beat Lebanon and the Tongans will be home and dry, barring an unexpected result elsewhere.
For England, the stakes could hardly be higher. They have never failed to reach the semi-finals of a World Cup but that record is now in serious danger – and McDermott's pre-tournament warning about the unforgiving nature of elite international rugby is already threatening to ring true after his side failed to capitalise on a positive start.
Already without the likes of Matty Lees and Mike McMeeken, McDermott lost Morgan Smithies and Morgan Knowles in the build-up to further deplete England’s ranks through the middle.
But they matched Tonga’s famed power and physicality in the early stages while showing more enterprise than at any stage during last year’s Ashes.
Yet for all those encouraging signs, and despite dominating most of the key stats, England went into half-time trailing 10-0.
The first period became a battle between England’s ball movement and Tonga’s committed rearguard. By the end of 40 absorbing minutes, the Pacific Islanders had won out.
Tonga handled everything England threw at them in a half that featured 13 offloads from McDermott's men.
Their second-phase rugby moved the heavyweights Tongans around but time and again England were thwarted by desperate last-ditch defence.
Dom Young was twice closed out in the corner in the early stages, a sign of things to come.
George Williams and Hugo Savala were both denied just short of the tryline before a fierce hit from Jason Taumalolo dislodged the ball from Victor Radley's grasp and switched the momentum.
Tonga, who were forced into an early change when Huddersfield Giants half-back Tui Lolohea replaced the injured Latu Fainu, made a break from the scrum through Robert To'ia and struck later in the set.
Isaiya Katoa's short ball put Stefano Utoikamanu over and all of a sudden England found themselves chasing the game.
Their frustrations boiled over in the closing stages of the half, Harry Smith and Herbie Farnworth both penalised for escorts to offer Katoa the chance to keep the scoreboard ticking over.
The one time England's dangerman Farnworth sensed an opportunity, he was denied by a high tackle in a sign of Tonga's desperation.
The game exploded into life after the interval but England's indiscipline cost them the chance to turn the tide despite Brimson backing up Savala's break to offer hope.
A penalty on the last tackle undid England's good work at the start of the second half and allowed Haumole Olakau'atu to restore Tonga's advantage with a scruffy try in the next set.
The disciplinary lapses continued, the Tongans scoring on the back of another penalty when Tolutau Koula finished Lolohea's grubber kick.
The next time McDermott's ragged side were penalised, Katoa knocked over a penalty to make it 24-6.
England had 20 minutes to rescue the game and gave themselves a lifeline when Young finished a sweeping move to the right.
But Olakau'atu finished Katoa's deft kick to finish England off and leave them facing an anxious fortnight.
England: Brimson, Young, Savala, Farnworth, Eckersley, Williams, Smith, King, O'Neill, Thompson, Nsemba, Pearce-Paul, Radley. Substitutes: Litten, Havard, Walters, Welsby, Ashton, Currie.
Tries: Brimson (44), Young (63).
Goals: Savala 2/2.
Tonga: Hopoate, Watene-Zelezniak, Koula, Toia, Fifita, Fainu, Katoa, Fonua-Blake, Foketi, Taumalolo, Olakau'atu, Wong, Frizell. Substitutes: Luke, Utoikamanu, Vaimauga, Halasima, Lolohea, Alamoti.
Tries: Utoikamanu (24), Olakau'atu (53, 71), Koula (56).
Goals: Katoa 7/8.
Referee: Gerard Sutton (Australia).