Just as the Nos. 1 and 2 seeds emerged from the NL side of the playoff bracket, the top two American League teams also advanced to the league championship series. It’s the No. 2 Cleveland Guardians vs. the No. 1 Tampa Bay Rays in the ALCS.
This will be the third time Tampa Bay and Cleveland have faced off in October. In 2013, the Rays won the wild-card game 4-0 at Progressive Field. In 2022, the Guardians prevailed in the best-of-three wild-card series, completing a two-game sweep punctuated by a walk-off home run from Oscar Gonzalez in the 15th inning of Game 2. In 2026, a best-of-seven awaits with a trip to the World Series on the line.
Game 1 is slated for 8 p.m. ET Monday at Tropicana Field. Here’s a look at how these two clubs match up.
How they got here
Guardians: After chasing down the White Sox to seize the AL Central title in September, Cleveland enjoyed a similar sequence in the ALDS. The Guardians rallied back from down 0-2 in the series, becoming the first team to do so in a best-of-five since the 2017 Yankees. The Guardians’ shutout victory in Game 5, which featured a major-league-record 21 strikeouts and a big swing from José Ramírez, was especially invigorating after Cleveland dropped the first two games of the series at home. The Guardians then had to regroup quickly and head to Tampa to take on a rested Rays club that dominated Cleveland in the regular season, winning five of six contests by a combined score of 20-8.
Rays: Despite minimal hype entering the season — FanGraphs projected 81 wins, and the Vegas over/under was 77.5 — Tampa Bay quickly floated to the top of the mediocre American League and cruised rather comfortably to the AL East title and the top seed on that side of the bracket, winning 98 games. The Rays completed a whopping 16 series sweeps during the regular season — the most of any team in the majors — so it should have come as no surprise that once they arrived in October, they dispatched the division-rival Yankees in three games without much trouble. That means they’ll be well-rested and back at Tropicana Field to begin the best-of-seven championship series, and that advantage could prove significant, considering how dominant the Rays were at home this season; their 55-26 home record was tied with Milwaukee for the best in the majors.
X-factors
Guardians: Parker Messick
The terrific rookie southpaw completed five innings in 30 of his 32 starts during the regular season, and one of the two in which he didn’t was his final outing in Game 162 after Cleveland had clinched. But Messick failed to go five in his first two career postseason starts and was uncharacteristically wild in his ALDS Game 4 outing, walking four batters for just the second time all season. That is not a trend the Guardians can afford to continue, given how taxed the bullpen was in the previous round (in part due to Messick’s abbreviated outings); Messick will need to look more like his regular-season self to put the Guardians in position to succeed. Adding to the intrigue: Messick grew up a Rays fan in Plant City, about an hour east of Tropicana Field, and delivered one of his best starts of the season at the dome in July, throwing 7 ⅔ innings of one-run ball.
Rays: Liam Hicks
Because the Rays’ pitching staff was able to keep the Yankees’ bats so quiet, Tampa Bay didn’t require an outlier showing from its lineup to advance, and the biggest swings of the series came from less-heralded hitters such as Victor Mesa Jr., Richie Palacios and Ryan Vilade. While the Rays’ three biggest bats — Junior Caminero, Yandy Diaz and Jonathan Aranda — all notched multiple hits last round, catcher Liam Hicks collected only one knock across his 10 at-bats. Hicks has been a brilliant addition since coming over from Miami at the trade deadline, and he has slotted in as Tampa Bay’s primary cleanup hitter against right-handed pitching. His spot in the batting order could be adjusted when facing Cleveland’s variety of southpaws, but he’s the kind of on-base and run-producing threat that could elevate this Rays lineup from good to great if he heats up.
How they win
Guardians: More José Ramírez magic
Full-season statistics indicate that Cleveland entered the playoffs with the weakest offense in the field (26th in OPS), but the Guardians did swing the bats well in September, lending optimism that they could produce enough run support for their sterling pitching to make some noise in October. The ALDS put both versions of the Guardians’ offense on display, with largely lifeless showings in the three home games but nine runs apiece in the two games in Chicago. The difference in the decisive Game 5 was a memorable swing from face of the franchise Ramírez.
This was a welcome resurgence from Ramírez. A midseason hamate injury hampered his availability and impact for much of the summer, but his crucial homers in Games 4 and 5 marked the first time in his career that Ramirez went deep in consecutive postseason games. Talent-wise, Cleveland matches up reasonably well with Tampa Bay on the mound, but its best chance to keep pace on offense features Ramírez coming through as an all-around game-changer.
Rays: Follow the proven recipe (and their best players) to the Fall Classic
Manager Kevin Cash — the longest-tenured manager in the majors for a reason — has been pushing the right buttons all season, deftly deploying his deep roster to great effect with the help of Tampa Bay’s biggest stars. That latter element will become more crucial as the Rays go deeper into October. Because as great as it was to get big-time swings from role players last round, it’s only a matter of time before AL MVP candidate Junior Caminero makes his presence felt.
Scheduled Game 1 starter Drew Rasmussen also seems to be peaking in the postseason, given his dominance against New York, and the Rays would be well served if top trade-deadline acquisition Freddy Peralta follows suit. At the same time, the Rays shouldn’t have to do anything drastically different to advance to the franchise’s third Fall Classic; rather, they should continue to lean on the pieces that got them this far. A slight uptick in production across the board could put them in position to give whoever comes out of the National League a fair fight.
How they lose
Guardians: The pitching runs out of gas
Cleveland asked an absolute ton from its pitching staff in the ALDS. Gavin Williams made an emergency relief appearance between his two brilliant starts. Top righty bullpen arms Cade Smith and Hunter Gaddis pitched in all five games. Three other relievers — Erik Sabrowski, Tim Herrin and Shawn Armstrong — appeared in at least three. The bye week might have prepared them to handle that workload against Chicago, but there’s no such break before they take on Tampa Bay, and the Rays’ offense is built completely differently than the whiff-happy White Sox lineup that struck out at a record-setting rate.
In fact, Tampa Bay’s hitters had the highest contact rate and lowest strikeout rate in the majors this year, a taxing trait that could exhaust Guardians pitching even further. Cleveland’s offense is also susceptible to going quiet for prolonged stretches, so even if the pitching shines again, more frustrating, narrow losses could be in store.
Rays: They lose the small-ball battle and struggle in the middle innings
After toppling a Yankees team that represented an extreme contrast in style of play and roster construction, Tampa Bay is now tasked with taking down a more similar opponent. Even with a prolific power source in Caminero, the Rays ranked 22nd in homers, 27th in average exit velocity and 29th in hard-hit rate; the Guardians ranked 27th, 26th and 28th in those categories. But while they both lack slugging potential, there are some key differences: The Rays are far more proficient at collecting hits (second in batting average; Cleveland ranked 24th), while the Guardians are more willing to draw walks and drive up pitch counts (eighth in walk rate, sixth in pitches per plate appearance; Tampa Bay ranked second and 29th).
All to say: If Cleveland can find just a few more clutch swings or timely long balls from its handful of homer threats (Ramirez, Jo Adell, Chase DeLauter) and the BABIP luck is not on Tampa Bay’s side, the Guardians might have an edge. The Rays could also run into trouble if they end up leaning too heavily on the bridge between their top three starters and dynamite closer Bryan Baker. Tampa Bay’s bullpen ranked 19th in ERA, 23rd in FIP and 28th in HR/9, and that weakness could be exploited if the starting pitching plans go awry.
Series prediction: Rays in 6
Two years ago, the Guardians went the distance in the ALDS against a division rival and won a memorable Game 5, only to be eliminated in the ALCS by a top-seeded AL East club. Will history repeat itself? It might be trending in that direction, but there are some significant differences between the Rays team the Guardians are about to face and the Yankees club that dispatched them in 2024. Tampa Bay has been incredibly consistent all year, but it doesn’t feature a trio of generational sluggers like Aaron Judge, Juan Soto and Giancarlo Stanton, all of whom did major damage against Cleveland two years ago.
This Guardians club has also added major pieces since then. Gavin Williams has blossomed into an ace, and the terrific rookie class of Messick, DeLauter and Bazzana has brightened the team’s present and future. That said, it’s no accident that the Rays won 13 more games than the Guardians in the regular season and looked far more comfortable in the previous round. These Guardians should be more competitive than they were in the 2024 ALCS, but the Rays still have the edge.