8h05 ▪ 6 min read ▪ by Luc Jose A.
Summarize this article with:
Mike McGlone, strategist at Bloomberg Intelligence, believes bitcoin could fall back to 10,000 dollars if American stocks fell 20%. Ki Young Ju, founder of CryptoQuant, rejects this projection and rather sets a theoretical floor around 30,000 dollars, due to institutional purchases and on-chain valuation.
In brief
- Mike McGlone envisions a Bitcoin drop to 10,000 dollars if American stocks lose 20% of their value.
- CryptoQuant considers this scenario unlikely and estimates that Bitcoin could find a floor around 30,000 dollars.
- Institutional purchases and on-chain data support the thesis of a market more resilient than in previous cycles.
- The two analysts rely on different indicators, but their forecasts remain uncertain in the face of macroeconomic risks.
A drop to 10,000 dollars depends on a stock market crash
Mike McGlone does not present 10,000 dollars as a certain trajectory. His scenario relies on a deep correction of American stocks, which would lead bitcoin into a new wave of sales due to its high sensitivity to risky markets.
Several data points allow assessing the magnitude of this hypothesis :
- Bitcoin is trading around 81,000 dollars ;
- A drop to 10,000 dollars would represent a decrease close to 88% ;
- McGlone conditions this level on a 20% decline of American stocks ;
- The Nasdaq 100 is about 6.5% below its peak of October 6 ;
- The yield on five-year American bonds approaches 5%.
The strategist also observes a bearish orientation of bitcoin’s 50-week moving average. He compares this configuration to that of 2022 and 2023, when the market was going through a prolonged correction phase.
Mike McGlone states :
I think bitcoin is heading towards a support around 10,000 dollars, especially if American stocks correct by 20%.
He believes that bond yields near 5% represent significant competition for bitcoin and gold, two assets that distribute no income.
The hypothesis is not new. McGlone has been mentioning a return of BTC to 10,000 dollars for several years.
Earlier in 2026, he also indicated that staying above 75,000 dollars would weaken his scenario. The price remains for now above this threshold despite several corrections.
CryptoQuant rather defends a floor at 30,000 dollars
Ki Young Ju believes the current market structure makes a drop to 10,000 dollars extremely unlikely. His analysis relies on investors’ acquisition cost, flows to ETFs, and bitcoins held by companies.
Bitcoin ETFs would have received about 58 billion dollars since their launch. Companies with BTC treasury would hold nearly 1.3 million bitcoins. These purchases have created new cost zones that did not exist during previous cycles.
Even in a scenario where these investors would sell their positions, Ki Young Ju places the on-chain floor around 30,000 dollars. A return to this level would already represent a correction of about 63% from the current price.
The leader notably relies on the MVRV ratio, which compares bitcoin’s market capitalization to its realized capitalization. The latter values each coin at the price of its last transaction on the blockchain and serves as an approximation of the market’s acquisition cost.
At 10,000 dollars, the MVRV would drop near 0.2, according to Ki Young Ju. However, its lowest level during previous bear markets was around 0.6. McGlone’s scenario would therefore imply an undervaluation three times deeper than the historical lows measured by this indicator.
However, the MVRV does not constitute a guaranteed floor. Forced sales, a liquidity crisis, or a major regulatory shock could produce an unprecedented situation. The 30,000 dollar level also remains an estimate, not an automatic protection.
Two opposing models facing the same macroeconomic risk
The disagreement mainly lies in the data favored by each analyst. McGlone starts from traditional markets, bond yields, and the correlation between bitcoin and stocks. Ki Young Ju focuses on capital flows, acquisition cost, and holders’ behavior.
CryptoQuant currently considers the market to be engaged in a first bullish phase. Its Bull Score Index rose from 20 at the end of July to 90 at the end of September, before staying around 80. Whales have started accumulating again, with 3.03 million BTC held outside platforms and mining pools.
“Whales have shifted from selling to accumulating, ETFs are buying again, and the largest borrowers obtain liquidity against their bitcoins instead of selling,” explains Ki Young Ju. He considers this behavior characteristic of the beginning of a bullish cycle.
However, the market remains exposed to Federal Reserve decisions and a possible Wall Street correction. A 20% drop in stocks has not yet occurred, meaning the main condition of McGlone’s scenario is not met.
The levels of 10,000 and 30,000 dollars should therefore not be read as precise targets. They represent the results of two models based on different assumptions, neither of which can predict with certainty the next floor of the bitcoin price.
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Luc Jose A.
Diplômé de Sciences Po Toulouse et titulaire d'une certification consultant blockchain délivrée par Alyra, j'ai rejoint l'aventure Cointribune en 2019. Convaincu du potentiel de la blockchain pour transformer de nombreux secteurs de l'économie, j'ai pris l'engagement de sensibiliser et d'informer le grand public sur cet écosystème en constante évolution. Mon objectif est de permettre à chacun de mieux comprendre la blockchain et de saisir les opportunités qu'elle offre. Je m'efforce chaque jour de fournir une analyse objective de l'actualité, de décrypter les tendances du marché, de relayer les dernières innovations technologiques et de mettre en perspective les enjeux économiques et sociétaux de cette révolution en marche.
DISCLAIMER
The views, thoughts, and opinions expressed in this article belong solely to the author, and should not be taken as investment advice. Do your own research before taking any investment decisions.