CPTPP bid in limbo
Government flip-flops erode public trust and jeopardize a vital trade initiative
The Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership, or CPTPP, is a multilateral trade pact involving 12 countries, including Japan, Australia, Canada and Mexico. South Korea has free trade agreements with all CPTPP members except Japan and Mexico. Joining the pact could expand export markets and improve trading conditions, but it would also expose domestic agricultural, livestock and fisheries sectors to greater competition and potential losses.
Winning the trust of stakeholders, particularly industries likely to be hurt by market opening, and building consensus on the government's policy are therefore essential.
The government formally announced on Aug. 27 that it would pursue CPTPP membership and began soliciting public input. On Sept. 28, it released preliminary estimates showing that membership would boost manufacturing output by an average of 6 trillion won ($4.5 billion) a year, but reduce output in agriculture, forestry and fisheries by 850 billion won annually.
In a Sept. 29 post on X, President Lee Jae Myung sought to allay concerns about the potential damage to these sectors, saying, "Please don't worry too much." He added that those who benefit from the policy could contribute to supporting those who lose out.
Yet at a Cabinet meeting on Oct. 6, Lee called for restarting discussions from scratch rather than rushing toward a predetermined conclusion. The instruction marked a sharp departure from the reassuring tone of his social media post just a week earlier.
The reason for the shift is not difficult to discern. The government was struggling to win support for CPTPP membership from farmers and fishers, whose trust had already been eroded by its nationwide farmland survey. Although the survey and CPTPP membership are separate issues, the former has become an obstacle to the latter. A poorly conceived policy has thus dealt a serious blow to the country's long-term growth strategy.
This is not the first time the government has retreated after a hastily conceived policy provoked a backlash. The nationwide survey of farmland use, aimed at identifying speculative holdings, began after Lee criticized poor farmland management at a Cabinet meeting in February. But the government pressed ahead without adequately considering the circumstances of elderly farmers who lease out their land, fueling discontent and eventually forcing a retreat.
Recently, the government sought to delist companies that failed to meet a market-capitalization threshold, but halted the process after businesses objected and a court intervened. Earlier, a real estate tax reform plan to reduce deductions for nonresident owners of a single home was scaled back just a month after its announcement as public opposition mounted.
These repeated reversals suggest that policies are being announced before their costs and political consequences have been fully assessed. Problems are inevitable when the president's social media posts or off-the-cuff instructions take precedence over thorough reviews by relevant ministries and efforts to build public support in advance. Quietly retreating from ill-prepared policies only deepens public distrust.
As the US-China tariff war erodes the foundations of free trade, the CPTPP is becoming increasingly valuable. South Korea's trade with CPTPP members totaled $341 billion last year, exceeding its trade with China ($273 billion) and the United States ($196 billion).
South Korea first pursued CPTPP membership in 2013 and revisited the idea in 2021, but never submitted a formal application, held back by other concerns and opposition from farmers. On Oct. 8, Lee instructed the government not to apply this year.
Postponing the application does not necessarily mean abandoning the bid, but the government has set no new timetable. Cheong Wa Dae said it would give farmers and fishers ample opportunity to voice their concerns. Some now wonder whether South Korea's third attempt to join the pact has effectively been derailed.
If the government continues to waver on its trade strategy, the CPTPP bid could fail, casting a shadow over South Korea's future as a major trading nation. The government must not sacrifice the country's long-term competitiveness merely to avoid short-term political backlash.
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