Slovakia wants change. But what kind?

The author is a former member of the Slovak parliament, and currently serves as scientific coordinator of the European Expert Network on Economics of Education, visiting professor at Sciences Po (Paris Institute of Political Studies), and entrepreneur and investor in digital health.

With a year to go until the election, one important question is preoccupying political commentators and some voters alike: how is it possible that, despite the government's disastrous performance, the opposition is not doing better in the polls?

The combined support for opposition parties is slightly higher than their actual vote share in the previous election, but there are two important caveats.

First, if, for example, the Demokrati party and the Christian Democratic Movement (KDH) both finish just below the 5 percent electoral threshold (the minimum vote share required for a party to enter the Slovak parliament), the remaining opposition parties will not have enough seats to oust Smer, Prime Minister Robert Fico's ruling party. Even more depressing for many is the prospect of a new government being formed, but one that depends on Igor Matovič, the populist former prime minister whose fractious coalition government collapsed in 2022.

As Smer MPs like to tell their opposition colleagues over a cigarette in parliament: "Go ahead, replace us. We'll be back within two years."

Before examining what is driving these trends, we should address one appealing but misleading explanation: that the opposition's predicament is entirely down to the incompetence of its parties and leaders, or to flawed political strategies.