Two cargo ships sunk in Strait of Hormuz as Iran ramps up attacks in run-up to midterms

Two cargo ships have sunk near the Strait of Hormuz in the past 24 hours after being struck by unknown projectiles in separate incidents – highlighting the heightened danger to shipping as Iran steps up attacks in an attempt to regain control over the critical waterway.

The Singapore-registered container ship GFS Pride was struck on Tuesday while passing through the strait, catching fire and later sinking, according to the Maritime and Port Authority of Singapore. All crew members were safely evacuated.

Videos verified by CNN show black smoke rising from the ship as it takes on water, while later footage and satellite images show cargo scattered in the water and a small oil slick. Iranian state media Press TV reported that the ship had “hit a sea mine on an unauthorized route” – which experts cast doubt on, saying a drone attack was more likely.

The merchant vessel Cape Dao, registered under Antigua and Barbuda, also sank, according to data from the International Maritime Organization (IMO) on Wednesday – after it was first hit by projectile on September 23. One Indian crew member was killed.

While many vessels have been hit in the Strait of Hormuz this year, these are only the second and third to have sunk in the Middle East since the Iran war began in February, according to IMO data. Attacks have ramped up significantly since the end of September, once again reducing the amount of oil transiting out of the Middle East and raising oil prices around the world.

That’s been a consistent headache for US President Donald Trump as the midterm elections approach, with gas prices, tariffs, and other factors driving up the cost of living top of mind for many voters.

Data from the United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO), which monitors shipping incidents, shows just how high the risk is. Nine attacks in or near the Strait of Hormuz have been reported since Monday, including a drone strike on a tanker.

Only 4.147 million barrels of oil successfully transited the Strait of Hormuz on Monday – less than a quarter of pre-war levels, according to maritime data tracking service Kpler. And the seven-day average of oil flow through Hormuz has dropped sharply since early October, Kpler’s data shows.

“The sinking of Singapore-flagged GFS PRIDE marks a dangerous escalation after weeks of near-daily attacks on commercial shipping. Iran claims a naval mine; but a drone strike is more likely,” said former US Navy officer Charlie Brown, also a senior adviser for United Against Nuclear Iran, a nonprofit that tracks and reports on Iranian sanctions violations.

“Many ask what response will the US Navy mount to Iran’s escalating attacks on global shipping,” he added. “But the real question is what response will other nations take? How long will the world tolerate this threat to shipping, seafarers and freedom of navigation?”

The US military continues to enforce a blockade on Iranian ports to maintain economic pressure on Iran. To some extent, it’s worked: Iran’s economy is in tatters, and in recent months it clearly lost its leverage over the strait, with the amount of oil flowing from other Gulf nations through the waterway increasing to near-normal levels.

That’s partly thanks to a complex operation involving US-military-escorted “dark” transits across the strait at night, with tankers turning off their transponders to avoid detection.

That rise in oil flow is why Iran is now ramping up its attacks and threats, hoping to wrestle back the leverage it once had over the strait – especially as American voters head to the polls.

The Trump administration has tried to lower prices in other ways, including a controversial deal announced last week to drop some sanctions on Russia to import a relatively small amount of the country’s diesel. But this has been met with bipartisan criticism – and there’s no guarantee it will bring any substantial relief, with analysts warning that diesel could climb near all-time highs by November.