Don't assume anything.
That's what the 2026 college football season has taught us. Don't assume that a top team with a historic winning streak is safe against an unranked foe (Georgia and Auburn), don't assume that dual-possession means what we've all been told it means (Miami and Florida State) and most of all, don't assume that your feet are in bounds as you glide to a potential game-winning touchdown (Nick Marsh).
OK, waaaaaaay too soon. My bad.
But the point stands — don't assume anything. As in, don't assume that Indiana can lose another regular-season game and still reach the College Football Playoff.
Why wouldn't a 10-2 Indiana team reach the Playoff?
I know what you're thinking. Isn't this year already off the rails? It is. There are only five remaining unbeatens, and amidst all the chaos, IU is still sitting at No. 6 following the brutal, but respectable loss to Ohio State.
Sure, it's possible that this year yields the first (and last) 9-3 at-large bid of the 12-team era. We can't rule that out.
We also can't forget that a year ago, 10-2 was by no means an automatic entry into the field. Five Power Conference teams with double-digit wins got left out of the field. The Big Ten was the only Power Conference that didn't have a team miss the Playoff after winning double-digit games.
In other words, don't assume that 10-2 is good enough, especially if you're a team with a cake non-conference schedule.
You know, like IU.
That's what I'd be worried about for Curt Cignetti's squad. A 10-2 team that misses the conference title game gets picked apart. It isn't just about "quality losses," which isn't quite the metric that some make it out to be. Once you're in 2-loss territory, the selection committee cares about who you beat.
As it stands, IU has one win vs. the current AP Top 25. Thankfully, that Northwestern win has aged as well as one could've hoped with the Cats at No. 24 still having suffered just the lone loss to the Hoosiers.
Future foe USC is also sitting at No. 16, though let's see what that ranking looks like in a few weeks after games at Wisconsin and home vs. Julian Sayin-less Ohio State.
Speaking of the Buckeyes being without their star quarterback, that "quality loss" for IU will be heavily dissected in the coming weeks. How different does Ohio State look without Sayin? And does IU get credit for taking the best version of Ohio State down to the wire? Time will tell.
There are just more questions than answers with IU's résumé
That's why a loss to Michigan or USC would be devastating. A 10-2 team with one quality win isn't a lock to make the 12-team field, even as the defending champs.
What about the fact that IU suffered its first loss in 22 months and it's still ranked No. 6? That's a positive, but it's not necessarily a guarantee that the selection committee will have the exact same sentiments about the Hoosiers' résumé as AP voters.
Let's also not forget that IU hasn't exactly earned style points in conference play. Three of the first four conference games went down to the wire.
Saturday's game at Michigan could make that four out of five. Either way, IU already surpassed last year's total of two regular-season games that were decided by one score.
The positive there is that if Cignetti's squad can indeed find a way to reach the 12-team field, it won't be lacking late-game experience. It's possible that we look back at Marsh's out-of-bounds foot as, well, a footnote of a battle-tested season. For all we know, IU will get revenge in the Big Ten Championship.
But a long road to Indianapolis awaits. It's thankfully not one that's loaded with roadblocks. After all, the two teams who are currently ahead of IU in the Big Ten standings (Ohio State and UCLA) both lost their decorated former 5-star quarterbacks. Nothing is guaranteed.
Nothing will be guaranteed for the Hoosiers if they suffer another loss. Consider that all the more reason to treat every game like it's Playoff-or-bust.
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