15h05 ▪ 5 min read ▪ by Luc Jose A.
Summarize this article with:
Despite the recent correction of bitcoin, several technical and on-chain indicators signal a possible return of the bull market. BloFin Research even estimates that BTC has entered a new cycle, but this hypothesis still depends on maintaining several key supports.
In Brief
- BloFin Research estimates that Bitcoin might have started a new bull market despite the recent correction.
- BTC remains above its 50-week moving average, a historically favorable signal for rebounds.
- The MVRV ratio and several on-chain indicators confirm an improvement in market momentum.
- The latest Bitcoin bearish phase appears shorter and less deep than those of previous cycles.
- Maintaining supports between 74000 and 78800 dollars remains essential to preserve the bullish scenario.
Bitcoin crosses back above its 50-week moving average
The main signal studied by BloFin comes from the 50-week moving average. This curve, which smooths price variations over nearly a year, was around 78800 dollars when bitcoin crossed it in September.
BTC closed the week of September 20 around 81200 dollars, then the week of September 27 at nearly 84456 dollars. It then exceeded 86000 dollars at the beginning of October before giving up part of its gains.
This maintenance for several weeks reinforces the signal’s significance. In 2015, 2019, and 2023, the durable reclamation of the 50-week average had accompanied the transition between a bearish phase and a new bull market.
Bitcoin now trades around 83600 dollars. It therefore remains above this average despite the recent wave of sales and liquidations seen on derivative products.
BloFin Research states:
Bitcoin has entered a new bull market.
This statement represents the analysis firm’s central scenario, not a definitively established fact. A prolonged return below 78800 dollars would strongly weaken this interpretation.
The MVRV confirms market improvement
The MVRV ratio provides a second argument for analysts. This indicator compares bitcoin’s market capitalization to its realized capitalization, which values each coin according to its price at its last move on the blockchain.
An MVRV above its annual average means the market valuation is progressing faster than the average acquisition price of holders. On October 11, this ratio was about 1.54, against an average over 365 days near 1.44.
This crossover had also accompanied the rebounds of 2019 and 2023. It suggests investors are recovering latent profits and that valuation momentum is improving.
Bitcoin also never stayed durably below its realized price during the 2026 decline. In the bear markets ending in 2015, 2018, and 2022, the price had instead dropped below this average acquisition cost.
Several on-chain data tracked separately by BIT Research have also simultaneously shifted into bullish territory. They include the realized price of short-term holders, NUPL, MVRV, and movements of old coins. Their convergence is a stronger signal than any isolated indicator, without guaranteeing continued upward movement.
A shorter and less deep bear market
Bitcoin reached a record around 126000 dollars in October 2025 before falling to 58525 dollars on June 30, 2026. The maximum correction calculated from daily closes thus reaches about 53%.
This drop remains considerable, but it appears clearly less deep than those of previous cycles. BTC had lost 84.5% between 2013 and 2015, 83.8% between 2017 and 2018, then 76.7% between 2021 and 2022.
If the June low holds, the bear market would have also lasted about eight months, against twelve to thirteen months in previous cycles. This evolution supports the idea of a more mature bitcoin, whose rises and falls progressively become less extreme.
The holding structure has changed. In September, about 16.64 million BTC were held for at least 155 days, representing nearly 83% of circulating supply. Spot ETFs and company treasuries also maintained part of their exposure during the decline.
The correction could still invalidate the bullish signal
The recent drop reminds that crossing a moving average is not enough to eliminate risk. Spot demand weakened after the rebound, while profit-taking and deposits on platforms increased.
Two zones must now be monitored. The 78800 dollar level corresponds to the 50-week moving average, while the region between 74000 and 77000 dollars concentrates several important on-chain thresholds.
A durable weekly close below these levels would call into question BloFin’s scenario. Conversely, defending them would confirm that the recent drop is an internal correction within an upward trend.
Bitcoin thus presents several characteristics of a new bull market, but has not yet provided an irreversible confirmation. The signal remains constructive as long as the price retains the supports reclaimed in September.
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Luc Jose A.
Diplômé de Sciences Po Toulouse et titulaire d'une certification consultant blockchain délivrée par Alyra, j'ai rejoint l'aventure Cointribune en 2019. Convaincu du potentiel de la blockchain pour transformer de nombreux secteurs de l'économie, j'ai pris l'engagement de sensibiliser et d'informer le grand public sur cet écosystème en constante évolution. Mon objectif est de permettre à chacun de mieux comprendre la blockchain et de saisir les opportunités qu'elle offre. Je m'efforce chaque jour de fournir une analyse objective de l'actualité, de décrypter les tendances du marché, de relayer les dernières innovations technologiques et de mettre en perspective les enjeux économiques et sociétaux de cette révolution en marche.
DISCLAIMER
The views, thoughts, and opinions expressed in this article belong solely to the author, and should not be taken as investment advice. Do your own research before taking any investment decisions.