Global ocean container schedule reliability fell for a fourth consecutive month in September, dropping 2 percentage points to 27% on-time, according to Xeneta’s September Schedule Reliability Scorecard.
Average vessel delay rose to 6 days across all arrivals, up 2.4 days since the start of the second quarter.
The analyst said the deterioration reflects the cumulative effects of powerful typhoons that struck Asia from July through early September, combined with bunker-cost pressure and strong peak-season demand. It does not expect a firm floor in October as Asian trade disruption continues.
Asia trades deteriorate
Asia-linked services recorded some of the worst performance, with the Far East-to-Europe trade collapsing to 4% on-time and an average delay of 9.9 days. That was the lane’s worst monthly result since September 2021, when on-time performance reached 3% during the Covid pandemic.
Asia-to-North America reliability was unchanged at a dismal 20%, but average delay increased 0.8 days month over month to 6.9 days. Xeneta said Chinese port congestion is increasingly translating into berth-arrival delays for shippers in Europe and North America.
The rate environment compounded the operational pressure. Xeneta’s spot-market average for China to the U.S. West Coast reached $7,717 per FEU in early October, more than four times the $1,778 recorded in September 2025 and 8% above the start of September 2026. Long-term rates rose 26% month over month to $3,649 per FEU on Oct. 1.
Carriers post delay highs
Every carrier tracked by Xeneta posted its highest average delay of the past 12 months in September. Four carriers also reached 12-month lows in on-time arrivals: CMA CGM at 30%, Cosco (1919.HK) at 18%, Hapag-Lloyd at 45% and Yang Ming (2609.TW) at 4%.
The performance spread between carriers narrowed to 43 percentage points, from 45 points in August. Maersk (OTC: AMKBY), the month’s most reliable carrier, fell from 51% to 47%, while Yang Ming marked the low end at 4%.
Xeneta said the Gemini network of Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd — launched on a premise of on-time performance — declined more sharply than other alliances, falling from 70% on-time in June to 40% in September. Its weekly on-time rate dropped from 62% in the first week of August to 34% in the week ended Sept. 28, and partial data for the week of Oct. 5 showed 28%.
Singapore congestion doubles
Port congestion spread downstream from China into Southeast Asia. Singapore’s average daily vessel queue nearly doubled to 22 ships, while average wait time rose from 1.9 to 3.1 days, as the transshipment hub absorbed effects of congestion at Chinese gateways.
Southeast Asia recorded a 2.0-day average vessel wait, with 23% of vessels waiting. Africa remained the most congested region despite improvement, with a 2.5-day average wait and 32% of vessels waiting.
In Northeast Asia, 30% of vessels at port were waiting, and average wait rose 0.3 days to 1.6 days. Shanghai’s anchorage queue shortened from 101 to 86 vessels per day, although average wait lengthened from 1.9 to 2.7 days.
Capacity cuts may increase
Carriers blanked — cancelled or delayed — only 6% of planned capacity on Far East-to-Europe and 8% on Far East-to-North America in September, their third-lowest blanking levels in 21 months, as delays and pre-Golden Week demand absorbed available capacity.
However, announced blank sailings are set to rise in October to at least 17% of planned capacity on Far East-to-Europe and 13% on Far East-to-North America. Planned Far East-to-Europe capacity in October is the highest of any month in a 22-month window, leaving limited slack to offset delays through cancellations.
Xeneta advised shippers to allow more lead time for October bookings and to ask carriers which services will be protected from capacity cuts. It also warned that reliability, port rotations, unscheduled calls and capacity management should be central to carrier accountability discussions ahead of 2027 contract tenders.
Read more articles by Stuart Chirls here.
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