Mexico’s midterm elections are set for June 2027, and the ruling party Morena has a commanding lead in national electoral preferences with 46% of voter intention, according to an Oct. 19 poll by the newspaper El Financiero.
In the poll, which measures generic party preference and not individual races, the National Action Party (PAN) is a distant second with 8% of respondents saying they would vote for the party. Although it may be more meaningful to give second place to “no preference,” which accounted for 31% of the responses, leaving room for some preference shifts down the line.
Following the PAN’s 8% are the Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI) with 6% and Citizens’ Movement (MC) with 5%. Meanwhile, the Green Party (PV) and Labor Party (PT), both allied with Morena, received 2% and 1% of voter intention, respectively.
The two new parties — PAZ and Somos — are still stuck in neutral, each garnering less than 1%.
In addition to measuring voting intention, the poll asked respondents for their opinion of each party. Here, Morena swept again. Not only did it record the highest favorable rating at 55%, but its two electoral partners finished second and third with 31% (PV) and 29% (PT).
The PAN earned a positive opinion from just 26% of eligible voters and the PRI 21%. More significantly, those two parties — the previous two to hold power before Morena — are burdened with negative ratings of 64% and 70%.
The 17 governor races are not all so cut-and-dry
A recent report by Político MX measured party support in the 17 state governorships up for election in 2027, using a variety of early polls. Here again, the results favor Morena but not quite as decidedly as the national poll.
Poll data is shaky at this point, but here’s the picture so far:
- In Baja California, Guerrero, Tlaxcala, Campeche, Colima, Nayarit, Quintana Roo and Zacatecas, candidates from Morena or its allied bloc lead comfortably across all the polls reviewed, often by double digits.
- In Sinaloa and Michoacán, Morena’s lead is less solid. One poll even showed the upstart candidate Grecia Quiroz, widow of the slain mayor of Uruapan, in the lead.
- The northern states of Baja California Sur, Chihuahua, Sonora and Nuevo Léon, are toss-ups, with the PAN in the first three and the PRI and MC in Nuevo León challenging Morena.
- In three El Bajío states, Morena could be the underdog. Querétaro and Aguascalientes are leaning toward the PAN, and in San Luis Potosí the incumbent PV has split from Morena and will run its candidate against its former electoral partner.
With reports from El Financiero and Político
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