A new island was recently discovered in the Caspian Sea off Kazakhstan’s coast. It wasn’t created by a volcano or an earthquake but by a dangerous trend: the sea is getting shallower. Scientists have little doubt that the body of water will continue to recede, putting the local ecosystem, shipping and coastal infrastructure at risk.
The new landmass was spotted near Kulaly Island during an aerial survey of the Caspian Sea. According to Daniyar Akimzhanov, an environmentalist who took part in the expedition, it’s not an isolated incident. Over the past five years, scientists have reported several islands appearing in the area as the seabed shallows, some up to a kilometer long and 300 meters wide.
Scientists believe these landmasses could eventually merge with the mainland or become submerged again. They have already spotted wild boars and wolves on the new islands.
Terrifying trend
According to data from the Kazakh Research Institute of the Caspian Sea, the water level in the Kazakhstani sector of the sea dropped by approximately 2.45 meters between 1996 and 2025.
In July 2026, the water level at the monitoring station near Kulaly Island hit a low of minus 29.42 meters — the lowest level recorded during the study period.
The problem is most acute in the northern and northeastern Caspian Sea. Because of the shallow depth, even a slight decline in water level leads to a noticeable retreat of the coastline.
Satellite studies indicate that between 2016 and 2025, the Caspian receded by more than 20 kilometers in certain areas along Kazakhstan’s northeastern coast. Scientists attribute the falling water levels primarily to climate change, increased evaporation and reduced river inflow. A major factor is the decline in discharge from the Volga River, which provides most of the Caspian Sea’s riverine inflow.
Dam and reservoir construction, along with water use for agricultural irrigation, also affect the situation.
Could the Caspian Sea share the Aral Sea’s fate?
Scientists do not expect the Caspian Sea to disappear completely, as its central and southern sections are deep enough to retain water. However, further retreat in the northern Caspian could trigger consequences reminiscent of the Aral Sea ecological disaster.
Caspian seals, sturgeon and other aquatic species are at risk. As water levels drop, islands where seals rest and breed are gradually connecting to the mainland, making the animals more vulnerable to land-based predators.
The receding Caspian Sea also threatens ports, shipping and the fishing industry. As the coastline retreats, infrastructure built based on previous water levels may end up too far from navigable waters.
In 2025, researchers estimated that a 5- to 10-meter drop in Caspian water levels could severely disrupt coastal ecosystems and leave billions of dollars’ worth of infrastructure stranded.
To avoid this scenario, Kazakhstan has proposed an international program to conserve the Caspian Sea’s water resources. Scientists believe that rational use of river water, continuous monitoring and cooperation among the five Caspian littoral states can help turn the tide.