MANILA, Philippines – At least three provinces in Northern Luzon are expected to have moderate to heavy rain on Wednesday, October 21, as Super Typhoon Rosal (Champi) accelerated before dawn.
As of 4 am on Wednesday, Rosal was already 990 kilometers east of Northern Luzon, moving west northwest at 30 kilometers per hour from the previous 25 km/h.
The super typhoon had intensified further on Tuesday evening, October 20, with its maximum sustained winds reaching 215 km/h from 195 km/h. Its gustiness also went up to 265 km/h from 240 km/h.
Rosal remains unlikely to make landfall in the Philippines, but it will still have an impact due to its size and intensity. It will be closest to extreme Northern Luzon between Thursday, October 22, and Friday afternoon, October 23.
The Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical, and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) released an updated rainfall outlook at 5 am on Wednesday, showing that the following provinces are expected to see significant rain:
Wednesday, October 21
- Moderate to heavy rain (50-100 millimeters): Ilocos Norte, Apayao, Cagayan
Thursday, October 22
- Heavy to intense rain (100-200 mm): Batanes
- Moderate to heavy rain (50-100 mm): Ilocos Norte, Apayao, Cagayan
Friday, October 23
- Moderate to heavy rain (50-100 mm): Batanes
On Wednesday, aside from the provinces mentioned above, Rosal may trigger moderate to at times heavy rain in Batanes, Isabela, and Catanduanes, as well as scattered rain and thunderstorms in the rest of Cagayan Valley, the rest of Bicol, the rest of the Cordillera Administrative Region, Ilocos Sur, Quezon, and Eastern Visayas.
PAGASA also advised more areas to brace for strong winds from the super typhoon. Here are the areas covered by Signal No. 1 as of 5 am on Wednesday:
- Batanes
- Babuyan Islands
- mainland Cagayan
- eastern part of Isabela (Maconacon, Divilacan, Palanan, Santa Maria, Cabagan, Delfin Albano, Santo Tomas, Tumauini, San Pablo, Ilagan City, San Mariano, Dinapigue)
- northern and central parts of Apayao (Calanasan, Luna, Santa Marcela, Flora, Pudtol, Kabugao)
- northeastern part of Ilocos Norte (Pagudpud, Adams)
- northeastern part of Catanduanes (Pandan, Bagamanoc, Panganiban, Viga, Gigmoto)
The highest possible tropical cyclone wind signal due to Rosal is Signal No. 2 or 3.
The northeasterly windflow and the periphery or outer bands of the super typhoon will also bring strong to gale-force gusts to the following areas:
Wednesday, October 21
- Ilocos Region, Cordillera Administrative Region, Cagayan Valley, Bicol, Romblon, Eastern Visayas, Siquijor, Bohol, Northern Mindanao, Caraga, Davao Region, Sarangani
Thursday, October 22
- most of Luzon and Visayas, Zamboanga del Norte, Northern Mindanao, Agusan del Norte, Surigao del Norte, Dinagat Islands, Sarangani, Davao Occidental, Davao Oriental
Friday, October 23
- most of Luzon and Visayas, Camiguin, Misamis Occidental, Lanao del Norte, Dinagat Islands, Davao Occidental, Davao Oriental
Travel is becoming increasingly dangerous in more seaboards in Luzon on Wednesday, with the highest waves up to 8 meters or around 26 feet high.
Up to very rough seas (travel is risky for all vessels)
- Seaboards of Batanes; northern and eastern seaboards of Cagayan including Babuyan Islands – waves up to 8 meters high
- Remaining seaboards of Cagayan; seaboard of Isabela – waves up to 6 meters high
- Eastern seaboard of northern Aurora; northern and eastern seaboards of Catanduanes – waves up to 5 meters high
- Remaining seaboards of Aurora; northern and eastern seaboards of Polillo Islands; northern seaboards of Camarines Norte, Camarines Sur, and Northern Samar; eastern seaboards of Albay and Sorsogon – waves up to 4.5 meters high
Up to rough seas (small vessels should not venture out to sea)
- Eastern seaboards of northern Quezon and Eastern Samar; remaining seaboard of Northern Samar; northern seaboard of Ilocos Norte – waves up to 4 meters high
- Eastern seaboards of Dinagat Islands, Siargao-Bucas Grande Island Group, and Davao Oriental; remaining seaboards of Catanduanes and Ilocos Norte – waves up to 3 meters high
Up to moderate to rough seas (small vessels should take precautionary measures or avoid sailing, if possible)
- Seaboards of Ilocos Sur, La Union, Surigao del Sur, and Surigao del Norte; southern seaboard of Davao Oriental; remaining eastern seaboards of Quezon; northwestern seaboard of Pangasinan – waves up to 2.5 meters high
- Eastern seaboard of Davao Occidental – waves up to 2 meters high
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PAGASA said Rosal can still strengthen further as it moves over the Philippine Sea on Wednesday morning, but it is likely to gradually weaken afterwards. It could weaken into a typhoon on Thursday and into a severe tropical storm by Sunday, October 25.
Rosal’s latest forecast track shows it is projected to maintain its west northwest direction on Wednesday, before heading northwest until Friday morning and recurving northeast by Sunday.
It may leave the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) by Friday evening or early Saturday morning, October 24.
Rosal, which entered PAR on Tuesday, is the Philippines’ 18th tropical cyclone for 2026, and the first for October. PAGASA earlier estimated the country may have one or two tropical cyclones during the month.
The Philippines is currently in a transition period to the northeast monsoon or amihan, following the end of the southwest monsoon or habagat, which was announced last October 5.
The northeast monsoon typically brings surges of cold temperatures, but the upcoming amihan period could be warmer as the existing strong El Niño in the tropical Pacific Ocean is predicted to become very strong in the fourth quarter of 2026. – Rappler.com