Gadi Eisenkot was the favorite to become Israel’s next prime minister on the prediction market Polymarket on Monday, as traders weighed the possible outcome of the October 27 election.
The online trading platform’s market gave Eisenkot, leader of the Yashar party, a roughly 49% chance of becoming prime minister after the election, compared with 31% for Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and 16% for former prime minister Naftali Bennett.
The market had recorded approximately $46 million in trading volume, according to Polymarket’s figures.
Polymarket is a prediction market platform that lets users trade shares tied to the outcomes of real-world events, including wars and elections.
Millions of dollars circulating through online bets on Israel's election
A separate market asking when Netanyahu would leave office recorded more than $124.5 million in trading volume, making it one of the platform’s largest Israel-related markets. Traders placed a roughly 38% probability on Netanyahu leaving office by December 31, 2026.
The market measured whether Netanyahu would cease to serve as prime minister by the specified date, rather than whether his party would lose the election. Its trading volume reflected the total value of transactions and did not necessarily represent the amount of unique money invested.
In a third market, traders favored Yashar over Likud to win the most seats in the Knesset. Polymarket gave Yashar a 68% probability of finishing first, compared with 33% for Likud. The market recorded nearly $1 million in trading volume.
The figures reflected traders’ positions on the platform and were not polling results or guarantees of the election outcome. Polymarket’s prices changed as users bought and sold shares tied to different possible outcomes.