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Memphis and Tulane were similarly poised heading into the 2026 campaign.
After years of success and a College Football Playoff berth for Tulane, both programs saw their head coaches depart for the SEC, and coincidentally they replaced them with the two previous coaches from Southern Miss.
Will Hall, who was in charge of the Golden Eagles from 2021 to 2024, took over for Jon Sumrall at Tulane, while Charles Huff, who spent one year at Southern Miss after winning the Sun Belt with Marshall, got hired as Ryan Silverfield’s replacement at Memphis.
Expectations were tempered at both schools for the new campaign, but one of these teams is defying the odds and could very well be in the College Football Playoff in two months.
Not only is Memphis 5-1 with its only loss coming on the road at Boise State, but the Tigers also boast one of the best statistical profiles in the Group of 6.
The Tigers are 6.5-point favorites over the Green Wave in New Orleans on Friday night.
Memphis vs. Tulane odds, prediction
It’s been a seamless transition for Memphis under Huff. Quarterback Marcus Stokes has been tremendous since making the jump from West Florida, but his job has been made easier by one of the most effective running games in the country.
Memphis leads the country in yards per pass (11.3), but they’re also seventh in FBS in yards per rush (5.6). And the Tigers have no issue running the ball down your throat. They’ve run the ball on 62.72 percent of their snaps, which is the 11th-highest mark in the country.
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That is a massive problem for Tulane.
The Green Wave may be able to have some success against a leaky Memphis defense, but it’s hard to see how they keep up with the Tigers. Tulane’s defense ranks 112th in yards allowed per rushing attempt, and only 10 teams in the FBS are conceding more yards per game on the ground than the Green Wave this season.
This is a sizable number to lay on the road in the AAC, but the tale of the tape points in one direction.
The Play: Memphis -6.5 (-110, DraftKings)
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Michael Leboff is a long-suffering Islanders fan, but a long-profiting sports bettor with 10 years of experience in the gambling industry. He loves using game theory to help punters win bracket pools, find long shots, and learn how to beat the market in mainstream and niche sports.