THE threat of a strong El Niño could slow Philippine agricultural production in the second half of the year, raising concerns over future food supplies and prices, although the government expects the impact to be less severe than initially feared.
Agriculture Secretary Francisco Tiu Laurel Jr., in a statement, said the peak of the dry spell is now expected in January, instead of November, giving the government more time to prepare measures to protect farm output.
“So far, so good naman tayo. No need to panic. We have enough food supply. Prices are actually stable,” Tiu Laurel said.
The Department of Agriculture (DA) is preparing interventions to help farmers cope with worsening weather conditions, including solar-powered irrigation systems, solar pumps and aerators for fish ponds.
The agency is also distributing quality seeds, fertilizers and bio-fertilizers to help sustain agricultural production amid the risk of prolonged dry conditions.
Tiu Laurel said the government is expanding the Kadiwa ng Pangulo program, which allows farmer cooperatives to sell directly to consumers. The initiative provides farmers with additional market access while reducing costs along the food supply chain.
The agriculture chief also played down concerns over recent food price increases, saying some of the rise reflects unusually low prices a year earlier rather than a significant deterioration in supply.
Food prices were a major driver of headline inflation, which climbed to 7.2 percent in September, matching the level recorded in April at the start of the Middle East conflict.
Tiu Laurel said palay prices had fallen sharply a year earlier, hurting farmers. Current prices, he said, represent a more sustainable level for producers rather than excessive increases for consumers.
The DA said supplies of staple food remain generally
adequate, helping keep prices stable in the near term.
However, a prolonged dry spell could reduce harvests and eventually put upward pressure on food prices if agricultural production weakens.
The government is banking on irrigation support, farm inputs and direct-selling initiatives to cushion farmers against weather disruptions and help maintain stable food supplies.
The effectiveness of these measures will be crucial in limiting potential production losses and preventing weather-related disruptions from translating into higher food costs for consumers. / KOC