Six decades of development have raised living standards, but gaps in social indicators may obscure growing distress and demand a national wellbeing audit.
DR DOUGLAS RASBASH
Six decades of economic development have transformed Botswana. But beneath the achievements, disturbing signs of social distress raise a difficult question: are we becoming materially wealthier but socially poorer? Botswana has measured progress through growth, infrastructure, education, healthcare and rising living standards. Yet are the lives of Batswana actually getting better?
Unemployment, household financial insecurity, sexual violence, suicide, drug abuse, changing family structures and outward migration raise the possibility of a social recession, in which quality of life deteriorates even when conventional economic indicators suggest progress. Equally important, can we trust the statistics used to judge our social condition?
LIFE AND VIOLENCE
Life expectancy provides a starting point. World Bank figures put Botswana at 68.7 years in 2022, 69.2 in 2023 and 69.3 in 2024. The latest increase was barely one month. This does not establish a permanent plateau, but Botswana remains approximately seven years behind the upper-middle-income average.
International compilations have placed Botswana among countries with the highest reported rape rates, including a widely cited figure of 92.93 cases per 100,000 people. Police recorded 2,296 rapes in 2023 and 2,018 in 2024, still more than five reported rapes daily. Historical research found that 67% of women had experienced some form of gender-based violence. Statistics Botswana recorded 9,973 GBV cases in 2024/25. But reported incidents cannot capture violence that never enters the system. Does a decline mean less violence or fewer reports?
Total recorded offences fell from 159,680 in 2023 to 146,526 in 2024, while some serious categories, including murder and drug-related offences, increased. A falling overall crime rate can conceal deterioration in particular forms of violence.
Suicide offers another measure. In 2023, the recorded mortality rate among men aged 15–24 was 8.9 per 100,000, compared with 0.9 among young women. Unemployment, loneliness, financial insecurity and substance misuse warrant investigation, but arrests and treatment records alone cannot prove that drug use prevalence is increasing.
CHANGING FAMILIES
Statistics Botswana recorded 7,631 marriages in 2021 but 4,517 in 2024, a 41% decline. Census figures for divorce, approximately 1.0% in 2011 and 1.1% in 2022, do not establish a surge. Of 41,784 births registered in 2024, about 84% were to unmarried mothers. This does not establish that 84% of children live in single-parent households; unmarried parents may live together or share responsibility.
Average household size fell from 3.7 in 2011 to 3.3 in 2022. Changing family structures need not signal failure: independence and choice may represent progress. What matters is whether families provide care, stability and opportunity.
THE EMPLOYMENT GAP
Statistics Botswana’s 2024/25 household survey counted 213,437 unemployed people, an official rate of 21%. Another 88,671 discouraged jobseekers were excluded from that calculation. Include them and the total becomes 302,108, yielding an extended rate of approximately 27.4%. Almost three in ten of the expanded labour force are unemployed or discouraged.
Labour force participation increased from 61.5% in 2015/16 to 65% in 2024/25, yet the employment-to-population ratio barely improved. The problem is insufficient productive employment, not simply withdrawal from economic activity. Youth unemployment reached approximately 38.2% in early 2024, while 41.3% of young people were neither employed nor in education or training. What does progress mean to someone with qualifications but no livelihood?
International demographic estimates suggest net migration losses of about 6,487 in 2023, 5,778 in 2024, 5,665 in 2025 and a projected 6,355 in 2026. These provisional figures cannot tell us how many skilled Batswana are leaving, but raise questions about domestic opportunity.
QUESTIONING THE NUMBERS
Police recorded 346 road fatalities in 2024, down from 413 in 2021. Are deaths occurring days after collisions consistently reconciled with police records? International practice recognises fatalities within 30 days. Completeness deserves verification.
This brings us to the corruption of truth. Information becomes corrupted when incomplete statistics are presented as comprehensive, incompatible surveys are compared, or convenient indicators conceal uncomfortable realities. Official unemployment excludes discouraged workers; reported rape cannot measure the full prevalence of sexual violence; GDP growth may coexist with household insecurity. Even technically correct statistics can mislead without context.
A WELLBEING AUDIT
If improving quality of life is government’s central purpose, why is it so little discussed? The State of the Nation Address, budget speeches, national development plans and the Botswana Economic Transformation Programme foreground investment and economic measures. But what is that investment for? Botswana needs a national wellbeing audit linking police, health, household, education and migration records, supported by a comprehensive Quality of Life Index.
The evidence does not establish that every social indicator has worsened over five years. It reveals serious problems that cannot be ignored. Botswana measures economic production, public expenditure and infrastructure delivery far more confidently than whether citizens lead safer, happier and more secure lives. Before improving those lives, we must be certain we are telling ourselves the truth.
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