Sherrod Brown, the former Democratic U.S. senator seeking to reclaim an Ohio Senate seat, has gained in prediction markets since Republican gubernatorial candidate Vivek Ramaswamy took responsibility for a campaign advertisement targeting his Democrat opponent, former Ohio health director Dr. Amy Acton, through her long-estranged mother.
The ad features Acton’s birth mother, Donna Arthur, calling her a liar and disputing her childhood story about spending time living in a tent, despite Acton saying she was removed from her mother’s custody after being sexually abused by her stepfather.
With Ohio voting on November 3, a controversy in the governor’s contest could shape the closely fought Senate race sharing the ballot.
Republican Senator Jon Husted, who is defending his seat against Brown, faces pressure from Democrats demanding condemnation and national Republicans defending Ramaswamy.
Since October 20, Brown has climbed by about 5 percentage points on U.S. regulated prediction market Kalshi and 8 points on Polymarket, where his implied chance of winning reached 72 percent.
Husted fell by approximately 6 points and 7 points, respectively, a Newsweek analysis found.
The movement follows an October Marist Poll showing Brown leading Husted by 48 percent to 44 percent among likely voters.
In the governor’s race, Acton led Ramaswamy by 50 percent to 43 percent.
Newsweek contacted all four gubernatorial and senatorial campaigns for comment via email on Thursday morning and is awaiting responses.
Why It Matters
Acton, who became a household name in Ohio during the Covid pandemic, was already polling ahead of Ramaswamy, who challenged Trump for the 2024 Republican presidential nomination, while Brown held a smaller advantage over Husted, who was appointed to the Senate seat vacated when J.D. Vance became vice president.
Any further movement among independents could therefore have an impact across both contests.
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Key Points
- Trump’s approval rating among likely Ohio voters stands at 43 percent, with 55 percent disapproving, according to a new Marist poll.
- Forty-four percent of those polled say their family finances have worsened over the past year, placing an economic grievance beneath the campaign drama.
- Acton and Brown are due to appear together at a rally with former U.S. president Barack Obama this weekend, giving Democrats an opportunity to present a unified ticket.
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Brown Tries To Put Husted On The Spot
Brown sought to connect his opponent directly to the dispute, writing in a Tuesday post on X: “The ad released by Vivek Ramaswamy is disgusting. Everyone, including Jon Husted, should be willing to condemn this ad.”
Husted subsequently told the Associated Press: “I would not have run that ad.”
That response leaves the senator balancing competing forces within his party.
Vice President J.D. Vance criticized Republicans who focused on the commercial rather than defeating Democrats.
“Whether the ad was appropriate or not is not really my concern,” Vance told reporters in Cincinnati on October 21.
“I have to admit that I’m a little bit disgusted when I see Republicans across the country who are whining more about that advertisement than they are about what the congressional Democrats and other Democrats want to do to the United States of America.”
Trump has separately reiterated his support for Ramaswamy in a list of campaign endorsements posted on his Truth Social account, tying the gubernatorial nominee more closely to a president whose standing in the Marist survey is underwater.
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The Polling Shows Democratic Strength
Marist interviewed 1,176 registered Ohio voters from October 15 through October 18.
Its likely-voter results have a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 4.5 percentage points; registered-voter findings carry a plus or minus 3.9-point margin.
Independents produced the clearest warning for Republicans.
Acton led that group 53 percent to 34 percent, while Brown held a 50 percent to 35 percent advantage.
Yet 49 percent of likely voters expected Ramaswamy to win, compared with 45 percent choosing Acton, revealing a gap between preference and perceived outcome.
A Bowling Green State University/YouGov survey of 1,000 likely voters, conducted from September 29 to October 9, placed both Democrats 6 points ahead. Its margin of sampling error was plus or minus 3.95 percentage points.
In that poll, Trump’s approval rating was 39 percent, with 58 percent disapproving, putting him 19 points below water.
Because both polls were completed before the controversy, they provide a baseline rather than evidence of backlash.
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What Prediction Markets Can – and Can’t – Tell Us
Prediction markets allow participants to buy contracts based on expected outcomes.
Their prices can incorporate developments faster than conventional surveys, but they reflect traders and available liquidity rather than a scientifically selected electorate.
A sharp change may capture genuine political concern, speculative momentum or both.
The timing of the movement in Brown and Husted’s chances across two major platforms makes Ramaswamy's campaign advertisement a plausible factor, not proven causation.
No post-ad voter survey has yet isolated its effect on either race.
Ohio’s Rightward Shift
Ohio has moved decisively right since supporting Obama twice, backing Trump by about 8 points in 2016 and 2020 and 11.2 points in 2024 as Republican gains outside major cities overwhelmed Democrat strength in urban areas.
Brown nevertheless offers Democrats a credible route back: he won statewide by 6.8 points in 2018 and lost his 2024 re-election race by only 3.6 points, substantially outperforming the Democratic presidential ticket.
A Personal Attack Creates A Wider Electoral Risk
Acton has said she was removed from her mother’s custody at 12 after suffering abuse; her brother, Philip Stearns, defended her in a sharply worded statement shared with Newsweek.
In response, the Ramaswamy campaign defended the ad by accusing Acton of repeatedly lying about her background, record, and Ramaswamy’s family.
Spokeswoman Connie Luck said Ramaswamy wanted to focus on rising costs but argued that Acton had avoided debates and restricted camera access at events, challenging her to answer questions directly before voters.
“Ohioans are struggling with rising costs and need a governor who can help them,” she told Newsweek in a previous emailed statement. “Vivek wants the election to focus on how to solve these problems.”
Ramaswamy has since confirmed his campaign’s involvement, saying: “It is an ad from our campaign.” His team announced plans to spend $4 million promoting it online and on television, AP reported.
That decision may consolidate voters receptive to attacks on Acton’s honesty. It could also reinforce her advantage with independents if those voters view the tactic as excessive.
Acton’s campaign has now released a new ad of its own, “Change,” casting the Democrat as focused on affordability and unity.
Acton promises to lower costs and taxes while preventing data centers from driving up Ohioans’ energy bills.
For Brown, the opening is straightforward: turn a gubernatorial uproar into a test of Husted’s judgment.
Whether Ohioans make the same connection will become clearer only when polling conducted after October 20 reaches the public.
Newsweek’s reporters and editors used Martyn, our AI assistant, to produce this story. Learn more about Martyn here.
Contact Newsweek editors on this story: John Fitzpatrick and Paul Donnelley.