Andrea Kimi Antonelli will have his first ‘match point’ opportunity to win the 2026 Formula 1 world championship at the next race, the United States Grand Prix.
Antonelli finished third in Sunday’s Singapore Grand Prix to extend his lead over Mercedes team-mate George Russell in the world championship to 102 points with six scheduled races remaining.
It means Antonelli can clinch his first world title and make history by becoming the youngest F1 world champion at just 20 years old at the next race in Austin on 23-25 October.
This is what Antonelli needs to do in order to secure a maiden drivers’ world title at the first attempt…
What Antonelli needs to become F1 champion at US GP
There are various permutations that could see Antonelli crowned world champion next time out, but put simply, he would need to win the race with Russell finishing ninth or lower and Lewis Hamilton fifth or lower.
With six grands prix set to take place, there are 150 points up for grabs. This means that Antonelli must leave Austin with an advantage of at least 125 points.
Despite there still being 125 points available after the United States Grand Prix, Antonelli would win the title on count-back of race wins due to claiming eight victories this season against Russell’s three.
If Antonelli finishes second or lower, he cannot clinch the crown on US soil and the title fight will go on to the Mexico City Grand Prix. Even if Russell finished 10th, Antonelli would still need to be victorious.
Russell finishing eighth or higher would prevent Antonelli from winning the title in Texas.
On pure performance, it is unlikely that Russell would finish so low. However, he will have to take another new engine this season, meaning he will be hit with a grid penalty for exceeding his permitted allocation of PU components at some point.
Mercedes is preparing to deploy an engine upgrade that could be ready as soon as the United States Grand Prix. That would leave both Russell and Antonelli likely facing a back-of-the-grid start, altering the title picture somewhat.
Can anyone else still win the F1 world title?
While Antonelli is destined to win the title and has been for some time, there are six drivers still in with a mathematical shot.
As well as the Mercedes pair, Hamilton, Max Verstappen, Charles Leclerc and reigning world champion Lando Norris are still technically in contention.
Sixth-placed Norris is 139 points behind Antonelli, underlining just how unlikely it would be for the McLaren driver to defend his title.
In reality, Antonelli already has one hand firmly on the championship trophy. It is now just a question of the timing of his coronation.
What has Antonelli said about becoming F1 champion?
Antonelli was taken off-guard when 2009 world champion Jenson Button informed the runaway points leader that he could clinch the world title as early as the next race.
"Can I? Really?” Antonelli questioned with genuine surprise. "Well, let's not worry about that. Let's try to do the best weekend as possible and finish the job.”
Speaking in the post-race press conference at the Singapore Grand Prix, Antonelli added: “I know it's very close, I know it's there, but I just need to make sure that I keep doing the best I can.
“The mindset is always the same, to go out there and win and perform the best way I can. I think this weekend I haven't particularly driven that well. I felt like I could have done a better job, but I feel confident that, a week to reset and I'm really looking forward to being back in Austin.
"But at the end of the day, if I don't do my job well, then the result won't come. So in order to achieve what I want, I need to perform, as simple as that.”
If Antonelli were to achieve the historic feat in the US, he will become world champion with five rounds remaining. That is one race shy of the record set by Michael Schumacher in 2002.
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